Gold's Hottest Year Since 1979 — And JPMorgan Sees 80% Upside For This Miner

Gold is on fire, marking its hottest year since 1979, and Fresnillo Plc (OTCPK: FNLPF) is riding the wave.

Despite soaring prices and a 300% year-to-date gain, JPMorgan analyst Patrick Jones sees room for another 80% upside, citing macro tailwinds, positive tail risks for gold, and further re-rating potential for the miner.

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Fresnillo: The FTSE100 Star

Fresnillo has been a market darling, rising over 300% YTD and outperforming gold peers by roughly 200%, making it the top performer in the FTSE100 both YTD and year-over-year. JPMorgan upgraded Fresnillo to Overweight in April 2024, and even after this strong run, the bank sees the stock on a pathway to roughly 80% upside.

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Macro Tailwinds and Positive Tail Risks

Despite gold already hitting new highs, JPMorgan sees further room for Fresnillo to run. The bank points to macro tailwinds and positive tail risks for gold as key drivers, along with potential further re-rating and valuation upside scenarios. "The gold price has already run past our JPM Commodities Research forecast to >$4,000/oz, but tail risk scenarios … are attracting more attention," the analyst explained.

In hypothetical scenarios, JPMorgan estimates that even a small shift of foreign-owned U.S. assets into gold could push prices to $6,000/oz., giving Fresnillo significant leverage as one of the sector's leading miners.

Why Investors Are Watching

With gold experiencing its most scorching year in decades, Fresnillo isn't just keeping pace — it's leading the charge. JPMorgan's view of an 80% potential upside positions Fresnillo as a top pick for investors looking to capitalize on what could be the biggest gold rally since 1979.

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