S&P 500 Bull Run Tends To Be 'Choppy' In 3rd Year: Ongoing 31-Month-Old Bull Market Could Have More Legs: 'Better Times Are Coming,' Says Ryan Detrick

After a 20% decline following a quick recovery, the S&P 500 index continues to be in the third year of a “choppy” bull market, according to the chief market strategist at Carson Research, Ryan Detrick.

What Happened: According to the data highlighted by Detrick, the index has been in a bull market since October 2022, thus completing 31 months in May 2025.

After entering the bear market territory and recovering from it in a short span, the S&P 500 index is now within a short distance from its all-time closing high of 6,144.15 points.

Detrick underscores that over the last 50 years, he has found five other bull markets that lasted at least this long, and the shortest any of them lasted was five total years.

Furthermore, he explains that all these long bull markets had a choppy third year. “The five bulls that made it into year 3 tended to see chop and frustration at some point,” he said, adding, “That’s the bad news. The good news is once you get past that (and I think we did this time), better times are coming.”

In the graph shared by Detrick, he highlighted the August 1982-1987 and October 2002-2007 bull markets, which lasted for five years each. It also underscored that the October 1974 to November 1980 bull market lasted approximately six years, and the December 1987 to March 2000 bull market, which lasted for over 12 years.

Additionally, he specifically highlighted the 11-year-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, which had a near bear market during the middle of the third year.

“This current bull market had a near bear market in the middle of year 3,” he said, talking about the ongoing bull market which began in October 2022.

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Why It Matters: The exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 index, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, which ended Monday at $603.08, has risen above its short and long-term simple daily moving averages, as per Benzinga Pro data.

Its relative strength index stood in the neutral zone at 58.46, whereas its MACD line of 3.88 was above the signal line of -0.94, which indicates a bullish signal.

Additionally, the positive histogram value of 4.82 confirms the bullish momentum.

Price Action: The SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, ended higher on Tuesday. The SPY was up 0.57% to $603.08, while the QQQ advanced 0.66% to $534.21, according to Benzinga Pro data.

The futures of the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices fell on Wednesday.

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