Buying Microsoft Stock Ahead Of Earnings? Seasonality Might Be On Your Side

With Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) set to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings in late October, some investors may be wondering if now is the right time to jump in. As it turns out, history says yes.

The three-week stretch between mid-October and early November has quietly been one of the most consistent winning periods for Microsoft stock — and it aligns perfectly with its first-quarter earnings release.

Microsoft Has a Seasonal Edge Before Earnings — Here's What 25 Years of Data Show

According to data from Seasonax, Microsoft has posted gains in 19 of the past 25 years between Oct. 14 and Nov. 7, translating to a 76% win rate.

During that timeframe, the average return was +6.5%, with the median right in line.

Not only has the stock shown strength in this earnings window — it's done so with impressive consistency, even during volatile or weak years for the broader market.

Microsoft's strongest showing occurred between Oct. 16, 2000 and Nov. 7, 2000, with shares jumping 40% fueled by a post-dot-com bounce.

Double-digit gains during this three-week window have occurred in 8 of the past 25 years — nearly one-third of the time — with standout performances in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2009, 2014, 2015, and 2021.

The most impressive run occurred between 2013 and 2017, marked by five consecutive years of positive returns.

Losses during this window have generally been modest. Only six of the past 25 years saw negative returns — and most of them were barely in the red, with the exclusion of 2003’s 8.5% loss and 2008’s 10.8% decline.

Why This Happens: Earnings And Psychology

There are a couple of likely reasons behind this seasonal pattern.

First, Microsoft tends to report earnings in late October, and investor optimism ahead of results often fuels a rally — especially as it sets the tone for the tech sector going into year-end.

Second, this period often follows weak September trading, which sets the stage for "buy-the-dip" behavior as investors reposition for the final quarter.

2025: A Strong Year So Far For MSFT. Can It Continue?

As of Wednesday, Microsoft is up 21% year to date, outpacing its 25-year average return of 9.1% over the same period (Jan. 1 to Oct. 14).

What's more, in years when Microsoft already had a strong YTD performance, it often extended those gains through early November:

• 2021: MSFT was up 40% by mid-October — and tacked on another 11.3% by Nov. 8.
• 2023: After rising 28% YTD through mid-Oct, shares climbed 8.4% in the same three-week window.

Even Weak Years Show a Bounce

Interestingly, Microsoft's seasonal strength isn't just a bull-market phenomenon. The stock has shown resilience even during tough years:

• 2002: Down 26.5% YTD by mid-October, then rallied +13.6%
• 2005: Off 6.9%, rebounded +9.5%
• 2009: Down 17%, then surged +11.7%
• 2022: The third-worst year ever, but Microsoft held steady in this window

Bottom Line

Microsoft's track record between mid-October and early November is one of the most consistent seasonal trends in a mega-cap stock.

Whether it's riding momentum from a strong year or bouncing back after weakness, history shows that Microsoft tends to deliver during this stretch.

With earnings around the corner and the stock already up 21% in 2025, investors betting on history may find themselves in good company.

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