Despite President Donald Trump's assertion that the U.S. will sell "so much" beef to Australia, economists and traders say supply shortages and record-high prices make major exports unrealistic.
What Happened: On Thursday, Australia eased longstanding biosecurity restrictions on U.S. beef imports, prompting Trump to declare on Truth Social, "We are going to sell so much to Australia because this is undeniable and irrefutable proof that U.S. Beef is the safest and best in the entire world."
But livestock traders and economists quickly pushed back, reported Reuters.
"We can't get enough beef in the U.S. right now, so we're bringing it in from Australia and Brazil," said Dan Norcini, an independent U.S. livestock trader. "We're not going to be selling anything significant to anyone."
The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest in decades—94.2 million head as of July 1—due to drought and feed shortages, the report said.
Last year, Australia exported nearly 400,000 metric tons of beef to the U.S., while American exports to Australia totaled just 269 tons.
"They have more cattle than people," said David Anderson, agricultural economist at Texas A&M University. "That's why they export so much."
Why It Matters: While egg prices are falling, beef prices have surged to record highs in 2025, pushing grocery bills higher.
Ground beef now averages $6.12 per pound (up nearly 12% year-over-year), and steaks are around $11.49 per pound.
Key factors include shrinking cattle herds (lowest since 1951), persistent drought, costly feed, high interest rates and trade restrictions—such as a U.S. suspension of cattle imports from Mexico and a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef starting Aug. 1.
Despite rising prices, U.S. consumer demand for beef remains strong. However, companies like Hormel Foods Corp. HRL may benefit if shoppers shift to pork or chicken, while plant-based alternatives like Beyond Meat, Inc. BYND and Impossible Foods could also see gains.
Tyson Foods Inc.'s TSN CEO has called this the “most challenging market” for beef in the company's history.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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