One frustrated investor took to Reddit to ask a question many have quietly wondered: “What, exactly, is the stock market based on now?”
“Not fundamentals. Not technicals. Not economic data. Not historical precedent. Not major news. Not Trump’s ‘truth’ tweets,” the person wrote.
More About Vibes Than Value?
Many agreed with the original poster, offering brief yet telling responses, such as “vibes” and “fumes.” One simply added, “Hope. The stock market is based on the hope you can grow some money.”
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Others suggested the system is less about value and more about routine flows of cash. A highly upvoted comment read, “It's based on continuing massive inflows of 401(k) money. Employed people socking away money in good times and bad. It means demand for stocks even when there is no rational reason for demand.”
Some pointed out that this cycle of automatic investing might be what's keeping the market afloat. “Fund managers end up with massive amounts of money that they must invest. It isn't optional,” one person wrote. “That means that fund manager gets a pile of money every month that has to go into the market no matter what realistic investing would dictate.”
Still, others raised concerns that this setup could eventually break. “This won’t hold when there’s more retired people than people investing for retirement,” someone warned.
Is It Gambling Or Just A Bubble?
Several people argued that the market now behaves more like a casino than a pricing mechanism for company value.
“You’re not betting on how a company will do, you are betting on what other gamblers will do,” one person wrote. “If the news is good and hyped they will buy thinking that others will buy. This makes the price go up.”
A few chimed in with cultural references to explain the mood. One joked, “Economics is just astrology for dudes,” while another compared current market logic to mass hallucination: “We routinely mass hallucinate trillion-dollar valuations for companies that would take a half century of growth to justify.”
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No Better Option?
Several commenters pointed out that most working-class people don't have better options. “What other means do most people realistically have? None,” one user said. “Houses aren’t affordable, rents are high, food and bill prices are high. If people couldn’t invest in stocks, how would they build wealth?”
While some still held onto traditional ideas like long-term investing or company profits, others said those no longer hold the same weight.
Whether it’s vibes, inflows, hope or habit, this Reddit thread made one thing clear: more and more investors are wondering if the market’s behavior makes sense anymore.
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