Streaming giant Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) no longer reports subscriber figures with its quarterly results, which could make management commentary on past and future content even more important in reading between the lines of how the company is keeping its current subscribers and trying to add more.
The company reports third-quarter financial results on Tuesday after market close. Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying, and key items to watch.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Netflix to report third-quarter revenue of $11.51 billion, up from $9.82 billion in last year's third quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in eight straight quarters.
Analysts expect Netflix to report third-quarter earnings per share of $6.97, up from $5.40 in last year's third quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in six straight quarters and in nine of the last 10 quarters overall.
Guidance from the company calls for third-quarter revenue of $11.526 billion and for earnings per share of $6.87.
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What Analysts Are Saying: A strong content lineup that included "KPop Demon Hunters" and several live sporting events could help the company match guidance, Bank of America Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich said in a recent investor note.
The analyst reiterated a Buy rating and $1,490 price target ahead of the quarterly results. Ehrlich sees subscriber momentum in the quarter coming from ad-supported plans and live events.
Ehrlich also highlighted Netflix's integration with Amazon.com in the fourth quarter, which will expand ad-buying options. The analyst said the integration could improve Netflix's ad demand.
Here are other analyst ratings on Netflix and their price targets:
- Seaport Global: Upgraded from Neutral to Buy rating with price target of $1,385
- Citigroup: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $1,280 to $1,295
- Loop Capital: Upgraded from Hold to Buy rating, raised price target from $1,150 to $1,350
Key Items to Watch: Netflix's third-quarter content slate included the highly successful "KPop Demon Hunters" movie, a second season of "Wednesday," several live events and the third season of "Squid Game," which came out with only a couple days left in the second quarter.
"KPop Demon Hunters," an animated kids’ movie, is the streamer's most popular movie of all time by viewers and was surprise smash hit in the quarter. The film has 325.1 million views and has ranked in the top 10 Netflix English-language films for 17 weeks.
Along with high viewership, the movie saw a short theatrical run for a sing-along version, has been a strong consumer products staple, has songs that topped the Billboard charts, and will likely see some of the most popular Halloween costumes for kids this year.
The film debuted on Netflix on June 20, which was in the second quarter, but the majority of the film's success will be in the third quarter.
It has been some time since a streaming release has had this much fanfare around it, dating back to the early days of the first season of "Squid Game" on Netflix.
While Netflix had a strong lineup of content in the third quarter, investors and analysts will want to hear more about the fourth-quarter lineup and what the company’s expectations are for revenue and subscriber growth.
The company has a fifth and final season of "Stranger Things" coming in the fourth quarter, and will also release two NFL games on Christmas Day. These items could be among the most viewed Netflix programs of 2025 and both come in the fourth quarter.
While Netflix doesn't break out subscriber figures or estimates, revenue growth in regions and overall along with updates on the overall health could signal higher membership figures. The company highlighted more members, higher pricing and higher advertising revenue as the reasons second-quarter revenue and operating margins were higher year-over-year.
Netflix's ad-supported plan is another big area where analysts will be focused, as this is one of the key growth catalysts for the company as subscriber growth matures. The company looks to boost revenue per subscriber.
The earnings report from Netflix also comes as the streaming giant faces pressure from billionaire Elon Musk and the Pentagon over content deemed "woke." Musk called for his followers to "cancel Netflix," but that came well into the fourth quarter. Whether the company comments on subscriber strength, or if it’s seeing any high cancellation figures, remains to be seen.
NFLX Price Action: Netflix stock closed at $1,238.56 on Monday, up 3.3%. The stock has traded between $744.34 and $1,341.15 over the last 52 weeks. Netflix stock is up 39.7% year-to-date in 2025.
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