The good news for diesel consumers in the global sell-off of commodities and equities Monday is that diesel prices fell further than most other financial assets.

The ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) contract on CME settled down 7.28 cents per gallon to $1.6091 per gallon, a drop of 4.32%. Contrast that with the decline in WTI crude (down $1.95 per barrel to $51.43, a decline of 3.79%) or Brent crude (down $2.20 per barrel to $56.30, a decline of 3.76%). RBOB gasoline fell 4.15 cents a gallon to $1.6091 per gallon, a decline of 2.51%.

For ULSD, the settlement actually still stayed above the CME settlements of Feb. 2 and 3, when it settled at a few cents less than $1.60 per gallon. But beyond those two days, the settlement in ULSD Monday was the lowest since an Aug. 23, 2017, settlement of $1.624 a gallon.

That compared with a 3.35% drop in the S&P 500. It also should be compared with how some other transportation stocks performed. American Airlines was down 8.52%; UPS was down 4.32%; and FedEx was lower by 5.15%.

Although it was a difficult day for trucking stocks, the team at Deutsche Bank led by Amit Mehrotra was positive for the outlook on equities, assuming a reasonable end to the spread of the virus.

Deutsche said transportation equities are up 2% since the New Year's Eve start of the coronavirus spread compared to a flat S&P 500. A similar pattern played out with the SARS outbreak in 2003. 

The optimistic outlook was clear in this further commentary from Deutsch: "Based on these observations, market participants appear willing to look past short-term disruptions in output and freight flows while giving nearly full credit to a recovery, implying potential for strong outperformance for U.S. Transportation equities (and broader market) when containment is clear."

"The growth impact will depend on the severity of the virus outbreak. If new infections slow sharply by the end of Q1 and Chinese workers return to the factories as encouraged by the central government, China GDP growth is likely to be somewhere between the benign and severe cases," the Merrill Lynch report stated. "If infections continue to grow significantly into

Q2 on a global basis and Chinese workers return to the factories at a very slow pace, the recovery will start later, more supply chains will be disrupted and impact on global growth will be more significant."

The sell-off in wide classes of financial assets didn't need a lot of help to head downard, but a report on the coronavirus by Goldman Sachs certainly encapsulated the fears that were driving the market. In one page in particular, quoting various experts, Goldman Sachs reported several statements that the spread of the virus was far from over.

"This virus is going to be very difficult to contain … personally, I don't think we can do it." That was from Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease researcher from Columbia University. Or from Dr. Nancy Messonnier, of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: "We are not seeing community spread here in the United States yet but it's very possible — even likely — that it may eventually happen."

The decline in diesel is notable when put up against other commodities. For example, the benchmark wheat contract was down 3.12% and corn was lower by 1.18%.

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