Bostrom, the Economy, Apocalypse, and You (Part I)

Part I: O Brave New World

"O, wonder!
How many goodly creatures are there here!
How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world,
That has such people in't!"
~William Shakespeare, The Tempest (Act V, sc. i).

Have you ever felt that you were living in some sort of cosmic game or computer simulation? Has the thought ever occurred to you that you are currently living in a simulated reality similar to "The Truman Show" or "The Matrix"? If so, you may want to check out the simulation hypothesis of Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom. In 2003, Bostrom presented a fascinating argument suggesting that we are living in a simulated reality.

Bostrom argued that one of three propositions must be true: (1) intelligent civilizations tend to not run simulations because of extinction, costs, resources, or ethical concerns, (2) no intelligent civilization will ever be capable of running a convincing simulation of reality, or (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.

Bostrom reasoned that if one believes that any intelligent civilization in the universe will ever be capable of running a computer simulation encompassing an entire universe, then one must concede that we are likely living in a simulated universe. This is because if an intelligent civilization is capable of running computer simulations, then it will most likely run millions if not billions of similar computer simulations. One must then ask: What is more likely, that we are the only intelligent civilization in the universe capable of running a computer simulation of a universe, or that we are one of the billions of computer simulations being run?

The philosophical aspects of the simulation hypothesis aside, modern science seems to also suggest that we are somehow living in a created reality owing to the nature of atoms and the pixelated nature of the universe. An episode of "Through the Wormhole with Morgan Freeman" explored these ideas.

Bostrom noted in his essay that if it is true that we are living in a computer simulation, the simulators would be able to reign over this planet and universe as "gods". The prospect of an afterlife would then be a real possibility as the creator or creators could fashion for its creations this mode of existence. In a 2007 New York Times article, John Tierney suggested that the reason that God allows so much evil and strife in the world is to relieve boredom; conflict and drama is entertaining, and peace is boring.

Using Bostrom's analysis, in 2006 Peter Jenkins argued that our simulated universe would most likely end once humans are able to create their own conscious simulations in a simulated universe. To avoid simulations within simulations, Jenkins argued that the termination of our computer simulation may occur around 2050 when such simulating technology would be available, i.e. when humans on Earth would be capable of running their own simulated universe via computer. Thus, according to Jenkins, to plan beyond 2050 would be futile.

From current financial problems to climate problems to the specter of growing global unrest, one cannot help but notice that the world has become a scary place in the past few decades. "Armageddon" has become a buzzword in the news recently. Things have gotten bad on a global scale, and there is no sign of things getting better soon. In the very near future, water and food shortages could give way to world conflicts of the kind that humanity has never seen. Given the tumultuous times in which we live, one cannot help but wonder if the planet's problems are because of some cosmic script written in another dimension. Could our planet's recent global crises be part of some otherworldly plan for entertainment or maybe a cosmic experiment? Bostrom's simulation hypothesis seems to suggest that our current debacle is related to some otherworldly direction and providence.

The prospect of a worldwide apocalypse has crept into both secular and religious circles recently. It is as if all this was staged and planned to occur, similar to a controlled demolition. There are many things going on in the world that suggest doomsday, but these same sorts of thoughts have existed all through history. Even 2000 years ago, some believed that the end was nigh. However, unlike all the previous times in history, the doomsday prospects of today are interwoven and interrelated on a planetwide global scale. The current quagmire is for all the world to see.

From the Mayan calendar ending in 2012 to St. Malachy's Prophecy of the Popes to Isaac Newton's projection that the world would end sometime around 2060, the affirmative response to the question of doomsday is being given by many different angles from various regions of the world. From an economic perspective, should humans on the planet Earth be overly concerned? Probably not, but doomsday prospects suggest that the economy will not improve. Though there are various perspectives that suggest that the apocalypse is upon us, I do not believe that humans should panic just yet.

No one knows what the future holds, but if all this is a cosmically scripted epic, then our fate is sealed as much as the fates of characters from some writer's novel. I cannot say that I absolutely believe that we are living in a computer simulation, but I cannot discount the possibility. The grave and dramatic nature of our situation seems to imply that it is being scripted on a global level. All of this global disruption is, in a word, quite convenient. A simple look at humanity's brief history over the past 10,000 years (in a universe that is 13.7 billion years old) reveals a complex, intricate, glorious, and somewhat entertaining divine epic in which we find ourselves. And when you think about it, it is pretty convenient that our grand adventure in intelligence has transpired in a mere 10,000 years given that the universe that is 13.7 billion years old.

Even in the midst of the apocalypse there is reason to be optimistic. Perhaps the future is bright after all. Perhaps the architect or architects of our divine epic want there to be a glorious salvation at the end after all -- an end where the architect or architects are the ultimate heroes of the divine epic, arriving just in the nick of time when everyone feared all was lost. Like the clouds parting and aliens coming down to be our saviors, perhaps a radical plot twist is in store. Most likely, the creators would be humans like ourselves -- people like us. And for humans, it is reasonably foreseeable that an author would write himself or herself in as the hero or heroine of the story. It's an odd coincidence that the hero of George Lucas' epic "Star Wars" was named "Luke". Furthermore, the word "apocalypse" comes from the Greek word for "revelation" or "uncovering". Thus, maybe the creator or creators are waiting for the right moment to reveal himself or themselves at the climax of their saga. In a way, our universe may tell us more about ourselves than we would like to know.

There are pluses and minuses to the prospects of an imminent apocalypse on the planet Earth. Yes, things could get worse, but maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel. It may be best to just play along for now. In this great epic, one cannot help but feel that we are somehow approaching an end of sorts. A crossroads, a peak, a climactic point. The important thing for humans now is to not panic. This could all be some improvisational theater on the stage that is the world. Like the staging of a grand drama, maybe there will be an awesome party for all the actors and actresses at the end of the show. When all is said and done, we may very well find ourselves asking each other and thinking to ourselves, "Do you not know? Have you not heard? Has it not been told to you from the beginning?"

ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that the world is free of any cosmic designers and that the economy will rebound in the years to come might want to consider the following trades:

• Go long on SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA and SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY.

Bearish:
Traders who believe that the apocalypse is upon us and will occur in the next few years thereby ensuring that the world economy will never rebound ever again may consider alternate positions:

• Short everything in sight.

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.