For many watching the buildup in tension between Russia and Ukraine ahead of the war that's been underway since Feb. 24, the decision to leave Ukraine might seem easy to an outsider.
Here's a look at the tough variables that play into that decision and how one trader used investing lessons to support his decision.
What Happened: Matt Hammond, his pregnant wife and daughter live in Kyiv, Ukraine. Hammond, who is the owner of IPO Warriors and a frequent guest on “Benzinga Live,” shared his journey of leaving Ukraine with his family.
“It’s been a pretty difficult week (and it's) been months of this growing,” Hammond said during his Feb. 28 appearance.
Warning signs were flashing of a potential invasion by Russia, with chatter picking up in January. Hammond said it was a warning from the U.S. Embassy in February that citizens should be leaving the country that helped him make his decision.
Hammond said the decision to leave was incredibly difficult, with his pregnant wife having relationships and trust with local hospitals. The family also has an apartment that is hard to pack up and leave. Hammond told Benzinga it’s easier to stay in place and hope that things work out.
Ultimately, Hammond and his family left for Poland.
“We got out 35 hours before the invasion started,” he said.
Poland was still requiring COVID-19 tests at the time of Hammond and his family’s arrival. He said this made the test one of the most important he's taken.
“If I fail my COVID test before vacation, have to cancel vacations. In this situation, if I fail my COVID test, I might be stuck in quarantine and stuck in a really bad situation.”
Hammond and his family are safe and he said his relatives that remain in the country are as well. The apartment building where the family resides has suffered damage, according to neighbors.
Related Link: Putin Annouces Special Military Operation In Ukraine
Stock Market Parallels: Hammond is well-known on Benzinga for highlighting and trading upcoming and recent IPOs. He said there are some parallels between a decision to leave the country and trading stocks.
“We talk about risk management all the time in trading and there are parallels,” Hammond said.
One of the most popular ideals for traders is to hold onto positions even when down.
“We don’t like to sell out of a losing position; we believe it will get better.”
Hammond said this was true with a decision to leave Ukraine, as the easy decision would be to stay and hope that things get better and an invasion doesn’t occur.
“It’s not the type of thing you want to be right about.”
He also cautioned investors in the IPO market with the Russia-Ukraine conflict at the forefront, as IPOs can get hit hard by market conditions, as they are one of the first positions people exit.
Hammond offered the following as his thoughts on “life, trading and managing risk.”
- It’s easier to do nothing than take radical action
- Your mind will doubt extreme possibilities
- Be aware of your confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance and how these affect your decisions
- Weigh the worst-case scenarios for all possible outcomes
- Take precautions to mitigate worst-case scenarios
- When in doubt, get out
Watch the full interview in the video below:
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