Benzinga Survey: How Many People Predict A US Economic Recession?

Every week, Benzinga conducts a survey to collect sentiment on what traders are most excited about, interested in or thinking about as they manage and build their personal portfolios.

This week we posed the following question to more than 1,000 traders and investors as to how likely they view a recession occurring in the next year:

Do you think an economic recession over the next year is…

Very Likely
Somewhat Likely
Somewhat Unlikely
Very Unlikely
Unsure

Benzinga readers spoke and 46.6% of respondents said they believed a recession was Very Likely over the next year.

Last week, when the survey was conducted, the market hit record lows which could have had a possible impact on responses. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a GDP shrinkage, the S&P 500 Index hit a 52-year low and the Treasury Bond Yield Curve inverted. All of those indicators all hinted at a possible economic recession.

A recent Benzinga article shared that the GDP shrunk 1.6% for first-quarter 2022 due to various COVID-19 surges and lockdowns due to new variants such as the omicron variant. 

Another Benzinga article stated that the Fed plans to introduce a 0.75% interest rate hike in July which comes after inflation continues to increase.

The poll indicated that 32.3% believed a recession is Somewhat Likely in the next year. While there are many indicators pointing toward a recession, on select days stocks have rebounded, which could have led participants to select this option.

The next highest response was Somewhat Unlikely as 7.3% of respondents selected this response. It is likely that our survey pool selected this response due to the various days where stocks began to rebound, gaining 5%-plus where it seemed that the economy was recovering. Unemployment also has remained fairly low which is not indicative of a recession. 

Finally, the lowest response was Very Unlikely with 6.1%. 

Overall, the survey indicated the majority of Benzinga users believed a recession will occur within the next year. This appeared to be in line with various market indicators as inflation continued to rise and the overall market fell.

For now, it seems that almost every day the economy continues to decline and a recession remains a strong possibility for next year.

This survey was conducted by Benzinga in July 2022 and included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older.

Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from over 1,000 adults.

Henry Khederian also contributed to this story.

Photo: Courtesy of Unsplash