One of the top storylines of the NFL offseason has played itself out and could impact the projections of several National Football League teams for the 2023 season.
A look at how the trade of Aaron Rodgers is impacting the NFL betting odds.
What Happened: Quarterbacks are always a big storyline during the offseason with players having new homes via trades and free agency, top quarterback prospects getting drafted and in some cases the retirement of quarterback legends like the 2021 and 2022 offseasons each saw with Tom Brady.
Outside of Brady retiring, the next biggest storyline for NFL quarterbacks is Rodgers, who for the first time in his career will have a home away from the Green Bay Packers.
Rodgers was traded from the Packers to the New York Jets this week, a move that has been anticipated for some time with Rodgers declaring his desire to be traded and play for the Jets.
The Jets traded their 2023 first-round pick (#13 overall), 2023 second-round pick (#42 overall), 2023 sixth-round pick (#207 overall) and a conditional 2024 second-round pick (1st round if Rodgers plays 65% of snaps in the 2023 season) for Rodgers, the Packers 2023 first-round pick (#15 overall) and 2023 fifth-round pick (#170).
Rodgers played 18 seasons with the Green Bay Packers, winning one Super Bowl, winning four first-team All-Pro selections, elected to 10 Pro Bowl games and winning the NFL MVP award four times (2011, 2014, 2020 and 2021).
Jets fans and sports betting platforms have high hopes for the Jets heading into the 2023 season.
The New York Jets currently have the longest playoff drought of all teams in the four major North American sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) sitting at 12 seasons. The Jets have had seven straight losing seasons, with a 10-win season in 2015 missing out on the playoffs.
The Jets last made the NFL Playoffs in 2010, where they won two games and beat the top-seeded New England Patriots before losing in the AFC Championship game to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Packers could find themselves on the other end of the enthusiasm with a losing record now predicted at sportsbooks. The Packers made the NFL Playoffs for eight straight seasons from 2009 to 2016 and in 11 of the last 14 seasons. The 2022 season saw the Packers finish with eight wins and nine losses and miss the playoffs for the first time in four seasons.
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Betting Odds: Sportsbooks have adjusted odds for the upcoming 2023 NFL season and some are also offering prop bets involving Rodgers and other Jets teammates.
Super Bowl: With the addition of Rodgers, the Jets are now listed as one of the Super Bowl favorites with odds of +1400 at DraftKings Inc DKNG. The overall favorites for the Super Bowl are:
Kansas City Chiefs: +600
San Francisco 49ers: +700
Philadelphia Eagles: +750
Buffalo Bills: +850
Cincinnati Bengals: +850
Dallas Cowboys: +1400
New York Jets: +1400
Several Teams: +2500
The Packers are listed with odds of +5000 to win the Super Bowl. From the betting odds covered after the Brady retirement, the Bills have dropped in the rankings now, likely attributed to playing in the AFC East with the Jets and having tougher competition.
The Jets last appeared in the Super Bowl in 1969 when they won Super Bowl III in a big upset over the Baltimore Colts, which remains their only Super Bowl appearance.
AFC East: One of the fiercest battles during the season could be to win the AFC East. The division has two of the Super Bowl favorites in the Bills and Jets and also has the Miami Dolphins listed at odds of +2500 and the New England Patriots.
The Bills are favored to win the division at odds of +130, followed by the Jets at +225, Dolphins at +300 and the Patriots at +800.
Jets Wins: The over/under for the Jets wins for the regular season is listed at 9.5 with the overpaying -145 right now. On the flip side, the Packers now have odds of winning 7.5 games with the under at odds of -150.
Bettors can also bet on the Jets to make the playoffs with yes-paying odds of -150 and no-paying odds of +120.
NFL MVP: Rodgers is listed with odds of +1800 to win the 2023 NFL MPV, ranking 10th of the players listed. Packers quarterback starter Jordan Love is listed at +3500.
In the four previous NFL seasons that Rodgers took home the MVP trophy, he threw for at least 4,100 yards and had 37 touchdowns with less than six interceptions. Here are those four seasons:
2011: 4,643 passing yards, 45 pass TDs, 6 interceptions
2014: 4,381 passing yards, 38 pass TDs, 5 interceptions
2020: 4,299 passing yards, 48 pass TDs, 5 interceptions
2021: 4,115 passing yards, 37 pass TDs, 4 interceptions
Prop Bets: At DraftKings there are several Rodgers and Jets-specific prop bets, which include:
Rodgers to throw 4,000+ passing yards, Jets make playoffs: +175
Rodgers to have 31 passing touchdowns in the regular season, Jets win AFC East: +300
Allen Lazard to have 9 receiving touchdowns in the regular season, Jets win Super Bowl: +2500
Over at FanDuel, a unit of Flutter Entertainment PDYPY, a number of prop bets are offered including:
Jets to score 1 touchdown in every regular season game: +100
Jets to make the playoffs, Packers to miss playoffs: +150
Jets to miss the playoffs, Packers to make playoffs: +500
Rodgers finished the 2022 season with 3,695 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns. The quarterback has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in 10 seasons and four of his last five NFL seasons.
For more on the sports betting landscape and what could be next for popular betting segments and legislation, tune in to the Benzinga Sports Betting Titans virtual event on May 24.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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