Is Bitcoin On Track For A Santa Claus Rally? Here's What Matrixport Is Predicting

Cryptocurrency services firm Matrixport suggests that Bitcoin BTC/USD may soar to $56,000 by year's end, as it drew parallels to its historical performance and potential future outcomes.

"If Bitcoin is up at least +100% by this time of the year, then there is a +71% chance or five in seven that Bitcoin would finish the year higher with average year-end rallies of +65%," Matrixport's Head of Research and Strategy, Markus Thielen outlined, suggesting the potential for a so-called "Santa Claus Rally" in the crypto sector during the weeks from early November to mid-December.

At the time of this report, Bitcoin's trading value has crossed the $35,000 threshold, marking a 114% increase since the beginning of the year, spurred by ETF optimism and Federal Reserve policy shifts.

Thielen projects a 65% increase by the end of the year, which would place Bitcoin's value above $65,000.

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"Based on these statistics, Bitcoin continues to offer upside potential, and a +65% year-end rally would lift prices back to $56,000," Thielen says.

The chart above depicts Bitcoin's performance in the first 10 months compared to the last two months of the year, spanning from 2010 to 2022.

In seven of the last 12 years, Bitcoin has seen at least a 100% increase in the first ten months, with the following final eight weeks averaging a 65% rally.

“When Bitcoin is up at least +50% by the end of October, there is, on average, a 78% chance that Bitcoin will advance even more into year-end," Thielen said. "Bitcoin rallied another +68% until year-end on seven of nine previous occasions."

This analysis is based on 13 years of Bitcoin history, he added.

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