Pfizer's 2030 Vision Bolstered By Seagen Deal, Analyst Cuts Price Target Amid Conservative 2024 Forecast

Truist Securities analyst Robyn Karnauskas reiterated a Buy rating on Pfizer, Inc. PFE, lowering the price target to $36 from $42.

While PFE provided lower-than-expected 2024 guidance, primarily driven by the management's conservative $8 billion COVID-19 product forecast, the analyst sees longer-term growth from investment in oncology with the Seagen Inc. SGEN acquisition. 

According to the analyst, PFE is in execution mode, headed towards its 2030 vision following recent launches and BD deals.

In addition, Seagen provides Pfizer with an array of proven and promising candidates, catapulting PFE to significant growth in 2030. 

PFE's FY2024 revenue guidance of $58.5 billion - $61.5 billion includes setting the floor for Comirnaty and Paxlovid with total $8 billion, while incorporating ~$3.1 billion in Seagen and (as well as $1 billion royalties that will now be accounted for as revenue). 

Pfizer believes 2024 vaccination and utilization rates will be similar to 2023 numbers, the analyst notes. 

The company is setting guidance lower than that b/c of the inherent invariability in that portfolio.

However, the analyst writes that combo vaccines (flu-covid) could support an uptick in COVID-19-related revenue in the long term.

Pfizer will provide additional color on their portfolio during their oncology-focused R&D day on February 29th, Karnauskas adds.

The analyst now models 2023 / 2024 / 2025 revenues of $59.5 billion / $61.3 billion / $65.6 billion from $59.8 billion / $67.2 billion / $69.6 billion.

The analyst sees adjusted EPS of $1.52 / $2.25 / $3.41 versus $1.51 / $3.42 / $4.06 prior. 

Price Action: PFE shares are trading lower by 1.86% to $26.17 on the last check Thursday. 

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