Affirm's Strategy Could Evolve Beyond Walmart Deal Towards Full Financial Services, Says Bullish Analyst

Shares of Affirm Holdings Inc AFRM have been climbing after the company announced the extension of its partnership with Walmart Inc WMT.

The focus is likely to shift from BNPL and partnerships like Walmart to Affirm becoming "a full-fledged financial services firm with direct deposits, savings, etc.," according to Mizuho Securities.

The Affirm Analyst: Dan Dolev maintained a Buy rating for Affirm, while raising the price target from $30 to $65.

The Affirm Thesis: The company’s gross merchandize value (GMV) could surge in fiscal 2026, driven by the rapid adoption of the Affirm Card and “an estimated 3-4x uptick in GMV per card, per user for direct deposit users,” Dolev said in the note.

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“At its analyst day this fall, AFRM management laid out a medium-term target of $50bn in GMV, up from $20bn in FY23, implying low-20’s CAGR,” the analyst wrote. “Our Blue Sky scenario of ~$55bn shows GMV could potentially be in excess of AFRM's $50bn mid-term guide, or $10-15bn more GMV vs. our current model,” he added.

“Our Blue Sky scenario assumes 35% card attach rate (vs. 25% in our base-case) by FY26,” Dolev further stated.

AFRM Price Action: Shares of Affirm were down 6.15% to $47.35 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

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