Intel Corp INTC, will be reporting its fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 25. Wall Street expects 45 cents in EPS and $15.16 billion in revenues as the company reports after market hours.

Intel stock is up 61.51% over the past year, outperforming most peers such as Micron Technology Inc MU, Analog Devices Inc ADI, Texas Instruments Inc TXN and Qualcomm Inc QCOM. Advanced Micro Devices Inc AMD, however, beat Intel stock by good measure, gaining 120% over the past year.

The Intel Analyst

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse has initiated a Neutral rating on Intel stock with a price target of $50 a share, implying no upside for the stock from current levels.

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Intel Investment Thesis 

Intel performed well in 2023, but 2024 looks uncertain. Cantor Fitzgerald is optimistic about Intel’s manufacturing roadmap, especially 18A with backside power and GAA leadership. There is anticipation for data center growth in 2024, with attention on Sierra Rapids and Granite Rapids launches. Intel expects a return to double-digit growth for Data Center revenues.

However, there’s a cautious view too. “Intel was a strong performer in 2023. As we look to 2024, we see a more-clouded picture,” the analyst notes.

Key risks, as identified by Cantor’s report, that could lead to modest cuts in estimates and impact Intel earnings in 2024, include:

• Potential downside risk in 1Q24 related to PC seasonality
• Reporting for DesignCo and FoundryCo is expected to be complex.
• The investment landscape for Intel is influenced by the potential impact of CHIPS Act grants.
• The monetization of assets like Mobileye Global Inc MBLY, Programmable Solutions Group, and IMS Nanofabrication remains a variable.
• Market focus on Intel’s 18A successes could lead to underestimating concerns.
• The potential shift in market share from x86 to ARM pose ongoing worries and represent risks to Intel’s future performance.
• Intel’s AI strategy is perceived to be lagging that of NVIDIA Corp NVDA and AMD.

Price Action: Shares of Intel were up 1.4% to $48.89 on Tuesday.

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