In the event of a Chinese blockade or quarantine of Taiwan, the United States may intervene militarily, according to a leading US think tank report. This conclusion is based on a survey of experts from the US and Taiwan.

What Happened: Business Insider reported on Monday that, according to a Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) report, a blockade or quarantine by China could prompt U.S. military intervention.

The report, released on Jan. 22, is based on a survey of 52 U.S. experts, including academics, former U.S. government officials, and think tank experts who have testified in Congress. While 63% of the experts were moderately confident of U.S. intervention in the event of a quarantine, 79% were moderately confident in the case of a blockade. This confidence level rises to 88% if the blockade includes military strikes.

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Should China fully invade Taiwan, 96% of the experts believe that the U.S. would join the fight. However, the experts are less confident about the involvement of U.S. allies in the conflict.

CSIS also surveyed 35 experts and scholars from Taiwan who expressed less optimism about U.S. intervention. Despite this, most of them believe that the U.S. would step in if China were to invade.

Why It Matters: The report’s findings come amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. Recently, China sent 33 military aircraft and 6 naval ships toward Taiwan, potentially complicating ongoing U.S.-China talks.

Earlier in the week, the U.S. Navy sailed a warship through the Taiwan Strait in a move that drew strong opposition from Beijing. Combined with the CSIS report, these actions indicate a high-stakes situation in the region.

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