PETA Casts Shadow Over Groundhog Day, Wants This Method Used Instead: How Does Stock Market Perform On Holiday?

Animal rights activist group PETA, which stands for People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, wants the town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania to cease using a live animal to predict how long winter will last.

What Happened: In a letter to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, PETA highlighted the fact that the group’s mascot — a groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil — is wrong 50% or more of the time.

Flipping a coin, the group insists, might be right more often.

PETA even offered to send a giant coin in exchange for Phil being sent to a sanctuary.

"Groundhogs can't make heads or tails of the weather forecast and shouldn't be jostled around by large member of a different species and thrust in front of noisy crowds for a photo op," PETA President Ingrid Newkirk said.

Changing Groundhog Day would require the town of Punxsutawney to do away with a longtime annual holiday tradition.

Each year, on Feb. 2, “Punxsutawney Phil” emerges from his home and predicts the upcoming weather.

If Phil sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. Not seeing his shadow means an early spring.

The event traces its roots back to the 1800s. Over 10,000 people are likely to attend the event (it has only been stopped due to a World War). Organizers held the event behind closed doors in 2021 due to COVID-19.

The event is even live-streamed and watched by people around the world.

According to USA Today, Phil has seen his shadow 84% of the time. The scheme dates back to his first official prediction in 1887. Phil's weather predictions turn out to be true only 39% of the time.

Before 2024, Phil had been right 40% of the time over the last 10 years.

After seeing his shadow in the last three straight years, Phil did not see his shadow Friday morning. That could mean an early spring.

PETA targeted Groundhog Day celebrations in the past.

Besides using a coin, other offers from PETA over the years included sending a human replacement for Phil, who would live in a small enclosure and make "unscientific weather predictions."

The group also offered to send a tree that could predict the weather and in 2020 offered to send an animatronic groundhog who would make predictions using artificial intelligence, perhaps ahead of the current AI trend.

Stock Market Returns: While Phil may not be able to correctly predict the weather the majority of the time, here's a look at how the stock market has performed the last several years, using the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, which tracks the S&P 500 Index.

Phil saw his shadow in 2023, 2022 and 2021 and did not see his shadow in 2020 or 2019.

Here's a look at the opening prices and closing prices for each of the last five years and the one day returns on Groundhog Day or the next trading day.

• 2019: open (Feb. 4 due to weekend): $270.11, close: $271.96, +0.7%
• 2020: open (Feb. 3 due to weekend): $323.35, close: $324.12, +0.2%
• 2021: open: $379.65, close: $381.55, +0.5%
• 2022: open: 455.50, close: $457.35, +0.4%
• 2023: open: $414.86, close: $416.78, +0.5%

As you can see, the stock market was up each of the last five years on Groundhog Day. While not huge returns, Phil seeing his shadow or not didn't have a huge impact, with similar returns each of the years.

Here's a look at how the stock market performed from Groundhog Day through the end of the year.

• 2019: +19.2%
• 2020: +15.6%
• 2021: +25.1%
• 2022: -16.0%
• 2023: +14.6%

In four of the last five years, the S&P 500 ETF was up 14% or more from the start of Groundhog Day through the end of the year.

Groundhog Day 2024 could see the stock market more volatile than normal with three of the largest companies reporting the previous day in Apple Inc AAPL, Amazon.com Inc AMZN and Meta Platforms META.

Meta Platforms reported on Feb. 1 in the prior year, but Apple and Amazon reported on Groundhog Day in 2023.

This year’s Groundhog Day also coincides with the release of the Apple Vision Pro headsets in stores.

Now Read: ‘Groundhog Day’ Star Bill Murray Returns With ‘Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire’ To Save The World – Can Weed Help?

Image: Pixabay