Why Is Healthcare Technologies ModivCare Stock Plummeting Today?

Thursday, ModivCare Inc MODV reported a fourth quarter of 2023 revenue of $702.8 million, up 7.5% Y/Y, beating the consensus of $696.72 million.

The revenue growth was driven by a 12.7% increase in total paid trips in the non-emergency medical transportation segment, partially offset by a 5.5% decrease in average monthly members. 

The decrease in membership is related to Medicaid redetermination impacts, which are trending in line with expectations. Revenue also increased due to a 3.4% growth in hours in the personal care services segment. The company reported Adjusted EPS of $1.29, below $2.11 a year ago, and against the consensus of $1.28.

“We have encountered some near-term financial headwinds due to, sooner than anticipated, large COVID-related working capital needs and margin pressure in our NEMT segment. Looking ahead, we anticipate the implementation of approximately $150 million in annual contract value starting in the second quarter, along with $30 million in cost savings driven by initiatives, including digitization, will help mitigate the effects of Medicaid redetermination and the normalizing healthcare utilization environment, especially in the second half of the year. These efforts will yield even greater annual run-rate benefits in 2025,” stated L. Heath Sampson, President and CEO.

Analyst Reactions:

• Deutsche Bank downgraded ModivCare from Buy to Hold and lowered the price target from $60 to $40.
• Jefferies also downgraded ModivCare from Buy to Hold, cutting the price target from $60 to $39.

Guidance: ModivCare forecasts first-quarter 2024 revenues of $650 million-$700 million versus the consensus of $702.03 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $28 million – $33 million.

For fiscal year 2024, ModivCare expects 2024 revenue of $2.7 billion-$2.9 billion versus the consensus of $2.89 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $190 million – $210 million.

Price Action: MODV shares are down 40.6% at $26.06 on the last check Friday.

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