The first presidential debate held on June 27 has apparently shifted the 2024 race slightly in favor of Donald Trump, assuming the contest will be between him and President Joe Biden, according to results from a swing-state poll released last week.
The 2-Way Matchup: Trump leads Biden by three points across battleground states that include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The finding was based on a survey of 2,826 registered voters nationwide by CBS News/YouGov between June 28 and July 2. The margin of sampling error was +/- 2.3 points.
For Trump, this marked an improvement from last month, when he trailed Biden by a point.
Nationally, Trump leads Biden by two points among likely voters, at 50% to 48%. The reversal in fortunes came after the presidential debate in which the president put up a dismal performance.
The fact that the lead is still with the margin of error reflects heavy partisanship. The poll found that over 90% of both Biden and Trump supporters said they will never even consider the other candidate even after Biden’s poor showing at the debate.
That said, Trump has an electoral college advantage, the poll found.
Multi-Candidate Ballot: When independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein were added to the nationwide ballot, Trump’s lead over Biden rose to four points. Forty-four percent of respondents backed Trump compared to 40% support for Biden, while Kennedy took away 11% of the votes. Stein and West received 3% and 2% support, respectively.
Kennedy took away roughly equal share of support from both mainstream candidates, while Stein and West snagged more votes from Biden than Trump.
Biden Voters Switch Allegiance? The survey found that half of Biden’s 2020 voters do not think he should run for office. These voters are more likely to pick someone else, either Trump or other candidates, and less likely to say they will turn out in 2024.
The debate has cemented Trump’s support among his 2020 voters. They said they are more likely to vote. Among independents, the contest is very close, with Trump just edging ahead of Biden.
Age Isn’t Just Number: The plurality of voters (46%) are concerned about the ages of both candidates. Biden, at 81 years old, is older than Trump by merely three years.
When asked whether they want Biden to run for office regardless of whether they would or would not vote for Biden, 69% said the president shouldn’t be running.
Following the debate, 9% said it made them think better of Biden, 53% said it worsened their opinion about him and 38% said it did not alter their opinion. Twenty-five percent, 27% and 48%, respectively, felt the same about Trump.
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