A Wild Week For EV Stocks
That was a wild week for EV stocks. by Thursday morning, shares of Tesla Inc. TSLA were up about 9% on the week, before crashing later that day on news that the company had pushed back the demo of its robo-taxi until October.
Then, on Friday Tesla shares recovered somewhat, as the whole EV sector spiked, with even struggling Lucid Group, Inc. LCID spiking 25% on the day. Here, we'll focus on two names I had positions in, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN, which spiked 8.05% Friday.
Entering The Week Long Tesla And Rivian
Entering the week, I had had bullish trades on both Tesla and Rivian since I posted this trade alert on April 8th.
The third EV-maker alluded to there was Xiaomi Corporation (XIACY), the Chinese consumer electronics giant that started selling a Tesla Model S competitor earlier this year. I got stopped out of that position on June 27th, with a modest gain of 5.8%.
Why I Was Long Tesla And Rivian
As I wrote on April 8th,
The first one is the most obvious one, Tesla (TSLA -0.61%↓). Its shares are down about a third year-to-date (YTD). First it missed its Q4 earnings, and then it posted an 8.5% year-over-year decline in 1st quarter deliveries, driven in part by shutdowns of its Giga Berlin factory. Tesla shares were trading at close to $250 at the end of 2023; our bet below is that they’ll be trading at over $205 next January, and if we’re right, we’ll make a ~200% gain [...]
The second one is a less well-known American EV manufacturer whose shares are down more than 50% YTD, for similar reasons as Tesla (lowered sales projections for this year). And yet, I’ve gone from seeing none of their vehicles locally to seeing three in the last week or so, including one of their pickup trucks yesterday. For years, when Tesla bears talked about the company going bust, one thing that convinced me they were wrong was the number of Tesla cars I saw kept going up. It’s gotten to the point where they’re ubiquitous where I live, in Bergen County, New Jersey, just across from New York City. Seeing this other American EV maker’s vehicles seems auspicious for them. Unlike Tesla, this one is currently losing money, but it’s also a lot cheaper than Tesla on an Enterprise Value/Sales basis. As with Tesla, we’re betting on a partial recovery in the company’s stock by January (partial meaning considerably less than what it was trading for at the end of last year).
My Long Tesla And Rivian Trades
My long Tesla trade was a vertical spread expiring on January 17th, buying the $200 strike calls and selling the $205 calls for a net debit of $1.63. If Tesla closes at or above $205 on January 17th, that trade will be worth about $5, representing a gain of about 200%.
My long Rivian trade was buying the $15 strike calls on the stock expiring on January 17th. For that trade, the upside was uncapped.
Turning Tactically Bearish On Tesla
No, I didn’t know Tesla would announce later that day that it was postponing the demo of its robo-taxi, but I knew this:
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Tesla’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 87 indicated the stock was overbought.
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After closing in the green for 11 or 12 straight sessions, the stock seemed like it was ready for a pullback.
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The net credit available on a call spread so close to the money was too good to pass up.
That call spread I entered was buying the $257.50 strike call on Tesla expiring on July 19th, and selling the $250 strike call on it expiring on the same day, for a net credit of $1.50. If Tesla closes below $250 next Friday, those call options will expire worthless, and I'll make $150 per contract while risking $100 per contract if the stock closes above $257.50.
The opportunity to make a 150% gain on this kind of credit spread is rare, in my experience. Often, you're lucky to get a chance at making even a 100% gain on this kind of trade.
Exiting The Week Taking Profits On Rivian
Tesla closed Friday at $248.23. At this point, it looks like a coin flip whether it will be below $250 next Friday, but since my best case scenario is a 150% gain versus a $100% loss, I'm fine with having 50% odds on that.
I used the spike in Rivian though to sell half of my January $15 strike calls on it for a 202% gain, locking in a >100% gain on the entire position. I'll probably hold the other half of those calls until January. Likewise, I'll probably hold by bullish debit call spread on Tesla until January as well. I'll be out of my bearish credit call spread on Tesla next Friday, one way or the other.
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