Battle Of Humanoid Robots And Robotaxis Vs. Electric Vehicles, Trump Rumor To Drive Bitcoin To The Moon

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Speculative Sentiment

Note the following:

• This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• Speculative sentiment is one of the major drivers of the stock market.
  • Right now, speculative sentiment is in the very high zone.
  • The battle of humanoid robots and robotaxis vs. electric vehicles is ahead. The result of the battle will significantly add to or take away from the speculative sentiment.
• The chart shows TSLA stock ran up on gamma squeeze.  Gamma squeeze is an important Wall Street mechanic.  Investors can gain a big edge by learning about Wall Street mechanics.
• The chart shows the resistance zone and support zones for TSLA stock.
• RSI on the chart shows that TSLA stock is close to being oversold. This makes it easier for TSLA stock to move up.
• The battle after Tesla’s earnings release will be the major determinant of the stock.  Tesla will release earnings after the close today.
• Elon Musk has succeeded in getting a portion of Tesla’s shareholder base to focus on humanoid robots, robotaxis, and AI.  In spite of Musk’s success in refocusing the shareholder base, a large portion of Tesla shareholders continue to be focused on the electric vehicle side of the business.
• Electric vehicle business continues to be weak and is likely to further weaken.
• Musk says that Tesla has humanoid robots in production, and they will be put to work at Tesla next year.
  • Tesla aims to sell humanoid robots to other companies starting in 2026.
• Tesla’s robotaxi event was postponed from August to October.  Expect more pump and mind blowing projections about robotaxis. 
• After the earnings release, there will be a battle between those who are focused on electric vehicles and those who are focused on humanoid robots and robotaxis.  The result of the battle will not only impact TSLA stock but also the overall sentiment of the entire stock market.
• Among important earnings, General Motors Co GM, General Electric Co GE, Coca-Cola Co KO, Lockheed Martin Corp LMT, SAP SE SAP, and Spotify Technology SA SPOT are reporting better than expected earnings.
• United Parcel Service, Inc. UPS and NXP Semiconductors NV NXPI are reporting worse than expected earnings.
• About 25% of S&P 500 companies are reporting earnings this week.
• The stock market is excited that Kamala Harris has secured enough delegates to clinch the nomination.  Expect the excitement to be short lived.

India

India continues to be one of the best long term opportunities.  As full disclosure, India focused fund Fairfax India Holdings Corp FFXDF is in The Arora Report's ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  Three India focused ETFs, WisdomTree India Earnings Fund EPI, iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF SMIN, and VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF GLIN, are in The Arora Report's ZYX Emerging Model Portfolio.

The central government budget is always a big event for Indian stocks.  The just unveiled budget is great for the long term, but in the short term, investors are spooked due to an increase in capital gains tax.  Short term capital gains will have a 20% tax rate, and long term capital gains will have a 12.5% tax rate.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla Inc TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc AAPL, Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN, Alphabet Inc Class C GOOG, Meta Platforms Inc META, and Microsoft Corp MSFT.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVIDIA Corp NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust GLD.  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLV.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF USO.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin whales are hard at work with a wild Trump rumor aiming to drive Bitcoin BTC/USD to the moon.  The rumor is that Trump could create a national bitcoin strategic reserve.  Of note is that Trump has apparently invited investors to the much hyped Bitcoin 2024 conference, including a private  round table event.  Trump is apparently charging $845,000 per person.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.

This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.