As Tropical Storm Debby Hits South Carolina, Bettors Predict An Aggressive Hurricane Season: Will It Be The Worst Ever?

As Tropical Storm Debby clears Florida and makes a turn for the rest of the Eastern Seaboard, all signs point to the remainder of 2024’s storm season being particularly dangerous.

The Latest On Debby: Tropical Storm Debby is nearing landfall in South Carolina, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The storm is predicted to hit the coast early Thursday morning, putting Myrtle Beach and Wilmington at significant risk of flash floods. The storm will continue to make its way through the Carolinas, putting Charlotte and Raleigh at moderate flooding risk.

Debby will then barrel through the rest of the Eastern U.S. — flooding risk will reintensify north of the Mason-Dixon line in northern Pennsylvania and Upstate New York through Saturday morning.

The Forecast: Predictors aren’t optimistic as hurricane season enters its busiest period in August and September. The 2024 Atlantic season will likely be one of the worst on record.

Bettors on Kalshi forecast 24.6 tropical storms total in 2024 — four storms have made landfall thus far. This would make 2024 the third-worst year ever, behind 2020 and 2005.

The betting market gives a low, but still substantial 15% chance of 30 or more hurricanes this year; this would be the worst season ever. It also gives an 83% chance of a season worse than 2023’s (18 storms).

The 24.6 figure is on the upper end of NOAA estimates. In May, the agency projected 18 to 25 named storms and four to seven major hurricanes.

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