Roche Misses Out On Weight-Loss Blockbuster Drug, Now Playing Catch-Up In Booming Market

Roche Holding AG RHHBY reportedly turned down a potential blockbuster weight-loss pill in 2018, allowing Eli Lilly And Co LLY to acquire the drug, now known as orforglipron, for just $50 million.

Despite its initial valuation in the tens of millions, the drug is projected to generate up to $14 billion annually by 2032, highlighting the weight-loss market’s massive growth potential.

The missed opportunity came as Roche opted not to exercise its “right of first refusal” on the drug, initially developed by Chugai Pharmaceutical, with which Roche has had a long-standing partnership.

At the time, the Financial Times reported that the drug—then called Owl-833—was in early phase-one trials.

Roche’s decision to pass on the acquisition reflects a cautious approach influenced by past setbacks in the anti-obesity and diabetes market.

Roche’s reluctance to enter the weight-loss race stemmed from its experience with earlier failures, such as Orlistat and taspoglutide, which caused side effects or failed trials.

Despite these challenges, Roche re-entered the obesity market in 2023 by acquiring Carmot Therapeutics, aiming to rival established players like Novo Nordisk A/S NVO and Eli Lilly.

Roche’s new weight-loss pill, although promising, is not expected to launch before 2028, leaving it behind competitors like Eli Lilly, whose orforglipron could be the only available small molecule GLP-1 drug for at least two years after its anticipated 2026 launch.

Eli Lilly’s bet on orforglipron exemplifies the advantage of companies with deep expertise in insulin-based diabetes treatments, giving them a head start in understanding metabolism and weight loss.

The Financial Times report added that the drug is expected to be a game-changer, potentially dominating the market as it is easier to manufacture and distribute than Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide, which faces production challenges.

Analysts estimate that Roche’s weight-loss products will only generate around $4 billion in sales by 2032, a far cry from what Eli Lilly could achieve.

As the competition heats up, Roche’s late entry into the market underlines the high stakes and rapid evolution of the weight-loss industry.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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