Jeff Bezos Said 'I Predict One Day Amazon Will Fail' And Claims Large Companies Only Last '30-Plus Years' – Guess How Old Amazon Is?

Amazon.com AMZN just hit its 30th anniversary, a huge milestone for a company that started as an online bookstore and became a global tech giant. Jeff Bezos's belief that most big companies only last around 30 years makes this anniversary even more interesting. 

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Back in 2018, during a company meeting, Bezos reportedly mentioned, "If you look at large companies, their life spans tend to be 30-plus years, not a hundred-plus years." In that same meeting, he said, "I predict one day Amazon will fail. Amazon will go bankrupt."

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Bezos, who founded Amazon in 1994, has often discussed how businesses have a natural life cycle. He's pointed out that as companies grow, they face big challenges – like market changes and new technology – that could eventually bring them down. But Bezos isn't just being negative. He's used this idea to shape Amazon's strategy and keep the company moving forward.

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One of the key ideas Bezos has championed at Amazon is his "Day One" mindset. This approach is all about staying nimble and keeping the energy of a startup, no matter how big Amazon gets. Bezos wrote in a 2017 letter to shareholders, "Day Two is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by an excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And that is why it is always Day One." 

As CEO, Bezos stressed the importance of being obsessed with customers and thinking long-term. His 2020 letter to shareholders said, "If you want to be successful in business (in life, actually), you have to create more than you consume." 

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The idea that big companies only last about 30 years isn't just an assumption Bezos made – it's backed up by data. For example, the average time a company stays in the S&P 500 index has dropped from 33 years in 1964 to just 24 years in 2016. This is mostly because of rapid technological changes and constantly emerging competitors.

While many companies fail to survive past a few decades, some survive much longer. Hertz, for instance, was founded in 1918 and lasted over 100 years before it filed for bankruptcy in 2020. On the other hand, companies like Wells Fargo, Boeing, and Ford have been around for over a century, proving that while it's tough, it's not impossible to stick around.

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As Amazon neared its 30-year mark, Bezos made headlines for selling many of his Amazon shares. In February 2024, he sold 50 million shares worth $8.5 billion, followed by another sale worth $5 billion in July 2024. These sales are part of Bezos's broader strategy to fund his other ventures, including space exploration through Blue Origin and various philanthropic efforts.

Over the past three decades, Amazon's journey has been marked by big achievements and challenges. The company has grown into one of the world's largest retailers, with a market valuation exceeding $2 trillion. Its success can be attributed to Bezos's visionary leadership and his ability to anticipate market trends and adapt accordingly.

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