Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has outlined a “playbook” for Bitcoin BTC/USD to reach $80,000 by the end of 2024, highlighting key factors that could drive the cryptocurrency to new heights.
What Happened: In his memo on Wednesday, Hougan reaffirms his prediction from last year, emphasizing that this forecast is conditional on several factors, primarily related to political, economic and crypto-specific developments.
Regarding the U.S. election, Hougan suggests that any outcome other than a Democratic sweep would be favorable for Bitcoin. He notes, “To thrive, bitcoin doesn’t need politicians. It just needs them to get out of the way.”
Hougan cites Polymarket data showing a 20% probability of a Democratic sweep.
On the economic front, Hougan believes two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and additional global stimulus, particularly from China, could propel Bitcoin’s growth. He points out that the market is already anticipating “an additional 50 bps in easing from the Federal Reserve by year’s end, and additional fiscal stimulus from China as well.”
The third crucial factor Hougan identifies is the absence of major negative surprises in the crypto space, such as significant hacks or lawsuits. He states, “If we can make it through the end of the year without similar shocks, I’d expect new all-time highs and beyond.”
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Hougan also suggests that a broader rally in the altcoin market could contribute to Bitcoin’s rise, potentially pushing it towards $100,000 in a short period. He draws parallels to the “DeFi Summer” of 2020, which generated excitement across the crypto sector.
Hougan concludes by highlighting Bitcoin’s strong performance in 2024 so far, noting its 49% increase and significant institutional adoption. He remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, stating, “All this suggests to me that we’ll get to $80,000 (and much more) next year, almost regardless of news developments.”
What's Next: The influence of the election outcome on the cryptocurrency sector will be a central topic at the upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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