Pierre Ferragu, an analyst at New Street Research, recently expressed his views on the disconnect between prediction markets and the press regarding the 2024 U.S. presidential elections
What Happened: On Thursday, Ferragu took to X to highlight the contrasting narratives between the media and Polymarket— a so-called decentralized prediction market that used cryptocurrency to offer bets.
He pointed out that while Polymarket gave former President Donald Trump a greater than 60% chance of winning, the press painted a different picture, suggesting a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris winning the popular vote, even though the Electoral College might favor the GOP nominee.
Why It Matters: Ferragu’s observations come in the wake of Trump’s widening lead over Harris on Polymarket, with the former President having a 62% possibility of winning at the time of writing.
Similarly, Kalshi, a federally-regulated betting platform, showed 57% odds in Trump’s favor, againt Harris’ 43%.
This was in sharp contrast to national poll surveys that gave Harris an edge.
A Marist College survey finds Harris leading Trump by five points, with 52% support to Trump’s 47%. Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll gave Harris a 3-point lead over her Republican rival.
The divergence comes amid speculation of a coordinated betting activity on Polymarket, where a single entity is suspected to have placed a massive $26 million bet on Trump’s victory.
Polymarket, built on Ethereum’s ETH/USD Layer-2 protocol Polygon MATIC/USD, has gained prominence as one of the world's top prediction markets for U.S. elections.
Image Via Shutterstock
Read Next:
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Comments
Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.
