PayPal Preps For Q3 Earnings: Analysts See Upside Despite Rivalries With Apple, Block And Possibly X

As PayPal Holdings Inc PYPL prepares to release its third-quarter results on Tuesday, Oct. 29, investors are likely worried about decelerating profits and challenges in maintaining transaction volume in the face of increasing competition.

If analysts are correct, the payments company will report earnings per share (EPS) of about $1.07. This represents a 17.7% year-over-year drop, so exercise caution.

However, revenue is expected to rise by 6.6% year over year to $7.89 billion. These projections underscore PayPal’s balancing act as it contends with evolving digital payment trends and the need to recalibrate its business strategy with artificial intelligence (AI) tools.

The EPS decline also reflects the intensified cost pressures that come with AI upgrades, and the added infrastructure needed to support PayPal’s buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) model. While these moves are strategic, they have squeezed the San Jose, California-based firm’s operating margins.

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Competition Is Heating Up

Another pressing issue is whether PayPal, under new CEO Alex Chriss, can secure customer loyalty and sustain transaction volume against its rivals:

• Apple, which now offers peer-to-peer/contactless payment options.
• Cash App and Square — both owned by Block Inc SQ.
• X, owned by ousted PayPal founder Elon Musk, plans to mimic Venmo’s features (PayPal has owned Venmo since 2013).

Despite the challenges, there’s a silver lining. PayPal’s “Pay in 4” offering has gained traction, with quarterly usage climbing among younger demographics.

PayPal Analysts See Upside

Analysts are optimistic about PayPal’s revenue growth trajectory after kicking the year off with a series of layoffs. The company has also made advancements in generative AI tools and cryptocurrency trading.

Additionally, PayPal's recent expansion into emerging markets has broadened its global footprint, particularly in Southeast Asia, where mobile payment growth continues to surge.

There’s also the recent launch of PayPal USD PYUSD/USD, a stablecoin issued by Paxos, and a trio of partnerships: Adyen, Fiserv and Global Payments GPN.

If PayPal successfully delivers on its revenue figures, it may signal that its strategic moves are bearing fruit, despite profitability pressures.

Price Action: PayPal was up 2.3% to $83.59 on Monday. The stock is up 63.74% over the past year, 36% year-to-date.

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