Incyte's Jakafi Demand Is Strong, Analyst Upgrades Stock

On Tuesday, Incyte Corporation INCY reported third-quarter revenue of $1.14 billion, up 24% year over year, beating the consensus of $1.08 billion.

Jakafi (ruxolitinib) net product revenues increased to $741.18 million, up 16% year over year, primarily due to a 10% increase in total demand.

Guidance: Incyte forecasts 2024 Jakafi revenue of $2.74 billion—$2.77 billion, up from prior guidance of $2.71 billion—$2.75 billion.

BofA Securities analyst upgraded Incyte’s stock, citing strong demand for Jakafi liſts overhang on competitive pressure in myelofibrosis and sees multiple shots on goal from the pipeline with several pivotal readouts expected in 2025.

The analyst upgraded from Neutral to Buy with a price target of 90, up from $68.

“We are also encouraged by continued growth for Opzelura with potential to expand into pediatric AD (approval expected in 2H25). We note 2025 will be a catalyst-rich year with several pivotal readouts,” the analyst added.

Although clinical validation is still necessary, the BofA analyst writes that some of these programs may help offset the anticipated loss of exclusivity for Jakafi in 2028.

The analyst has a more optimistic view of Jakafi’s prospects in myelofibrosis, seeing a reduced risk of market share erosion from new competitors.

The updated model projects Jakafi’s peak sales at $3.2 billion, up from our previous estimate of $2.8 billion. The analyst has also raised estimates for Opzelura, anticipating strong growth driven by the pediatric atopic dermatitis market and robust demand in the EU, now projecting peak sales of $1.7 billion.

Price Action: INCY stock closed higher by 0.45% to $73.93 on Wednesday.

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