Zinger Key Points
- Trump's election win intensifies China's focus on stimulus measures.
- China considers over 10 trillion yuan in fiscal support amidst trade tensions.
President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory has intensified China’s focus on economic stimulus, with significant plans expected to be announced soon.
During his campaign, Trump proposed raising tariffs on Chinese imports by as much as 60%. This potential increase could reduce Chinese exports to the U.S. by about $200 billion and shave one percentage point off China’s GDP, CNBC cites former Chinese economic planning official Zhu Baoliang.
U.S.-listed Chinese stocks Alibaba Group Holding BABA, JD.com, Inc (NASDAQ: JD), Baidu, Inc (NASDAQ: )BIDU, NIO Inc (NYSE: NIO), Li Auto Inc (NASDAQ: LI), and XPeng Inc (NYSE: XPEV) are trading higher Thursday, regaining from the selloff after Trump’s victory.
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Amid signs of slowed growth and weak consumer spending, China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, is meeting this week and will likely approve a stimulus package.
Expected measures may include over 10 trillion yuan ($1.39 billion) in financial support, mainly directed at local government debt and real estate, CNBC cites Yue Su from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
This move is seen as China’s response to anticipated “Trump shocks” on trade.
Following Trump’s win, Chinese stocks took a hit while U.S. markets rallied. Analysts expect Beijing to roll out gradual stimulus measures instead of a large package. According to Liqian Ren of WisdomTree, while
China might add around 2–3 trillion yuan annually in fiscal support, caution prevails due to uncertainties surrounding Trump’s potential tariff actions.
Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the State Council’s Development Research Centre, recently emphasized to SCMP the importance of boosting domestic demand through structural adjustments, urging for “short-term measures” to stabilize the economy immediately.
Other experts echoed the call for sustainable strategies during a forum in Hainan, especially after President Xi Jinping’s recent address hinting at economic stabilization.
Raymond Yeung, ANZ Bank’s chief Greater China economist, told SCMP China could meet its growth target without large-scale stimulus, pointing instead to improving economic indicators like the recent uptick in the manufacturing PMI.
Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, stressed to SCMP the need for a careful balance between reforms and stimulus, suggesting that a more significant fiscal deficit could help stimulate consumption and lift China from its deflationary pressures.
Price Actions: At the last check on Thursday, BABA stock is up 2.22% at $98.88 premarket. JD is up 3.08%, BIDU is up 2.12%, NIO is up 3.60%, LI is up 2.83%, and XPEV is up 6.02%.
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