Polymarket bettors are giving the highest odds to Jan. 6 protestors and Ross Ulbricht as likely candidates for a pardon from Donald Trump when he assumes office in January.
According to the prediction market, there is an 85% chance Trump will pardon individuals involved in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, reflecting Trump's vocal support for those prosecuted in connection with the event.
Many January 6 participants have been charged with offenses such as unlawful entry, disorderly conduct, and in some cases, assaulting law enforcement officers.
Trump has previously characterized the prosecutions as political overreach, signaling possible leniency if he returns to office.
Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road online marketplace, follows closely, with a 77% chance of receiving clemency, according to Polymarket bettors.
Ulbricht was arrested in 2013 and subsequently sentenced to life in prison without parole in 2015 for his role in creating and running Silk Road, a darknet platform that facilitated drug transactions, illegal goods sales, and other unlawful activities.
Despite the nature of the charges, Ulbricht's harsh sentence has sparked debate, with many in the crypto community arguing for his release, viewing him as a symbol of excessive punishment in the digital era.
Steve Bannon, Trump's former advisor, has a 30% probability of receiving a pardon.
Bannon was convicted of contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena from the House January 6 committee investigating the Capitol riot.
He had also previously been pardoned by Trump in 2021 for charges related to defrauding donors in a fundraising campaign.
Bannon's close ties to Trump and history of legal leniency from the former president may make him a likely candidate for another pardon.
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Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, holds a 21% probability of pardon, according to Polymarket bettors.
Assange faces extradition to the U.S. on charges related to releasing classified U.S. military and diplomatic documents.
The U.S. government alleges that Assange's actions endangered lives, while his supporters argue that he performed a public service by exposing government secrets.
Assange's case has become a focal point for advocates of press freedom, though his potential pardon remains controversial.
Edward Snowden, with a 16% probability, is also seen as a possible candidate for clemency.
Snowden, a former National Security Agency contractor, leaked classified information about U.S. government surveillance programs in 2013.
Fleeing to Russia to avoid prosecution, Snowden remains a divisive figure, with some viewing him as a whistleblower and others as a traitor.
Advocates continue to call for a pardon, arguing his disclosures were in the public interest.
Interestingly, Polymarket bettors have also given a 14% probability to Trump potentially pardoning himself, a legally unprecedented move that would likely spark intense constitutional debate.
The notion of a self-pardon has been speculated on since Trump's previous term, but its legality remains untested.
Other notable figures on Polymarket's list include Hunter Biden (7%), who faces ongoing investigations related to his business dealings and tax matters, and Sam Bankman-Fried (5%), the former CEO of FTX who was arrested and charged with fraud following the collapse of his cryptocurrency exchange.
Meanwhile, special counsel Jack Smith plans to drop criminal cases against him before he takes office, according to a report.
Trump's upcoming inauguration will end ongoing criminal cases tied to his retention of classified documents and efforts to overturn the 2020 election, as Justice Department policy prohibits pursuing such cases against a sitting president.
This decision removes the largest legal threat against Trump and sets the stage for possible pardons for his allies and other controversial figures.
The potential for these high-profile pardons, and their implications for U.S. politics and finance, will be a central topic at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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