Polymarket Bettors Say 60% Likelihood Bitcoin Crosses $100K This Year

The odds of Bitcoin BTC/USD reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024 have surged, with bettors on Polymarket currently assigning a 60% probability to the milestone.

This confidence follows Bitcoin's new all-time high of $87,293 on Monday afternoon, according to data from CoinGecko.

Wagers on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2024 have exceeded $2.6 million in trading volume, with bettors currently assigning a 57% probability.

Bitcoin is trading up about 10.3% in the past 24 hours and 30% over the past week.

Speaking with Benzinga, analysts attribute the momentum to a combination of macroeconomic factors, regulatory expectations and increased institutional activity, with some cautioning about potential volatility.

James Toledano, COO of Unity Wallet, believes that while President-elect Donald Trump‘s election win has contributed to the price surge, it is only one of several factors driving Bitcoin's gains.

"We can chalk up much of the very sharp 18% price increase of the past five days to the Trump election win," he noted, also emphasizing, "The price surge reflects a multitude of other factors beyond just Trump, including the evolving market maturity of cryptocurrency and increased institutional involvement."

Also Read: MicroStrategy Acquires Another 27,200 Bitcoin Worth $2 Billion

Toledano warned that while the "Trump-bump" is real, Bitcoin’s price might experience significant swings, given Trump's unpredictable influence on market sentiment.

Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, pointed to additional long-term growth factors supporting Bitcoin's recent rally, including the recent halving, growth in the equity market and active crypto ETFs.

He noted the post-election momentum has raised expectations for upcoming U.S. regulatory changes, which could continue to boost Bitcoin’s price.

"We anticipate a continued rise, albeit with some technical corrections and elevated volatility, possibly until the New Year," Lienkha said.

He also highlighted the primary risk factor remains the U.S. economic outlook, particularly a potential recession that could impact both traditional and crypto markets.

The implications of these trends, alongside anticipated regulatory shifts, will be discussed at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where industry leaders are set to explore how political and economic developments could shape the future of the crypto market.

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