Moderna Remains Confident Despite Political Concerns Over Vaccine Safety and HHS Nomination

Last week, some large European and U.S. vaccine maker stocks fell in reaction to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.

Including Moderna Inc MRNA, several stocks witnessed a decline as Kennedy has been known to be against vaccines and has a track record of making false claims about vaccines, including the debunked idea that they cause autism.

Goldman Sachs hosted an investor lunch with Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel, President Stephen Hoge, and Lavina Talukdar, SVP and Head of IR, to discuss the potential impacts of the incoming government administration.

Management highlighted that, according to legislation, the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is responsible for managing the department rather than creating policy.

It remains uncertain how political appointees might affect the current vaccine regulatory framework, which Moderna believes would require significant effort to alter, the analyst highlights.

The analyst highlighted that HHS Secretary nominee Robert Kennedy Jr. has previously raised concerns about vaccine safety, mainly regarding vaccines for children. However, Moderna is not creating vaccines targeted specifically for children.

Moderna’s management expressed stronger confidence in their pre-election strategy to focus on investments in oncology and rare diseases while reducing reliance on respiratory infectious diseases.

Following comments made at the recent R&D Day, Moderna will keep promoting its Spikevax and mRESVIA vaccines but will prioritize securing approval for ten new products over the next three years. This strategy aims to boost sales and expand the company’s pipeline beyond respiratory vaccines.

Goldman Sachs remarks that Moderna expects to break even at ~$6 billion in revenue and achieve that in 2028 on a cash-cost basis.

Analyst Reaction:

• Piper Sandler reiterates Moderna with an Overweight and lowers the price target from $115 to $69.
• HSBC upgraded Moderna Hold to Buy and announced a $58 price target.
• Goldman maintains the Buy rating with a price target of $112.

Price Action: MRNA stock is up 5.40% at $38.84 at last check Monday.

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