Key Stocks, ETF To Watch As French Government Faces No-Confidence Vote

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a critical vote of no confidence tomorrow (Dec. 4) after invoking Article 49.3 to pass a controversial 2025 austerity budget without parliamentary approval.

The move, designed to address France's soaring deficit with $42 billion in spending cuts and $21 billion in tax hikes, has polarized the fractured National Assembly. Marine Le Pen's National Rally and the leftist New Popular Front have united in opposition, calling for Barnier's ouster. In on interview on TV today, Barnier warned that if the motion succeeds, millions of French citizens could face economic instability, including rising interest rates and tax hikes, per the Guardian.

A failure to secure support would result in Barnier's government being the shortest-lived in modern French history, he only took office in September, further destabilizing the eurozone. President Emmanuel Macron would then need to appoint a new prime minister to navigate the deeply divided parliament.

France has often been a volatile market for foreign companies, but its size, manpower, favorable geographical position, and pole position in global tourism have made it a lucrative economy.

The following publicly listed companies have exposure to the French economy.

McDonald's MCD has been operating in France since 1972. Since then, it has grown into a network of 1,485 restaurants — the most in Europe — generating billions in revenue. However, the franchise got caught evading taxes after a trade union asked the company to raise wages and introduce profit-sharing bonuses. Eventually, the firm paid a $1.3 billion fine.

Walt Disney Co. DIS opened its resort in Paris in 1992, growing it into one of the top attractions in Europe. Around 16.1 million tourists visited the park in 2023, generating $343 million in profits. The park is the largest single-site employer in the country, with 17,000 workers — making it prone to strikes that last occurred in 2023. Despite its popularity, the park has been a problematic part of Disney's portfolio and is often a drain on its resources.

IBM IBM has a long-standing relationship with France as one of the IT pioneers that expanded overseas seeking foreign talent.  Nowadays, IBM has over 7,000 employees in the country, working on technology services, cloud computing, AI and digital transformation solutions for businesses.

Carmaker Stellantis NV STLA has a vital presence in the country, owing to its origins in the French PSA Group. It is the fourth largest automotive firm by sales, managing established brands like Citroen, Peugeot and DS Automobiles. Stellantis currently has five operating factories in different regions, producing at least 14 different models.

For investors monitoring broad exposure to domestically incorporated French companies there is iShares MSCI France ETF EWQ. It holds 60 largest French companies, including market leaders such as LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE LVMUY, Schneider Electric, TotalEnergies SE TTE and Airbus SE EADSY.

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