Eli Lilly Cuts Q4 Revenue Guidance, Expects Around $5.5 Billion Sales From Weight Loss/Diabetes Drugs, Stock Tanks

On Tuesday, Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE: LLY) announced that it expects 2024 full-year worldwide revenue to be approximately $45.0 billion, representing a 32% growth compared to the previous year versus the consensus of $45.50 billion.

Eli Lilly expects fourth-quarter 2024 revenue of approximately $13.5 billion, representing a 45% year-over-year growth compared to the consensus of $13.97 billion.

The company’s expected 2024 revenue is $400 million, or about 3%, below the guidance range issued during the third-quarter earnings. The guidance includes approximately $3.5 billion for Mounjaro and $1.9 billion for Zepbound.

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In addition to the uptake of Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly saw a strong performance in its oncology, immunology, and neuroscience medicines in the fourth quarter. In total, non-incretin revenue grew by 20% year-over-year.

“While the U.S. incretin market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous guidance had anticipated even faster acceleration of growth for the quarter. That, in addition to lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end, contributed to our Q4 results. We continued to make progress on our manufacturing build-out, and U.S. supply across all doses of tirzepatide was available throughout Q4,” said David Ricks, Lilly chair and CEO. “The rest of our medicines performed within our expectations.” 

“We’ll also bring additional manufacturing capacity online and expect to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of the year compared to the first half of 2024,” Ricks added.

The company also shared 2025 revenue guidance, anticipating sales between $58.0 billion and $61.0 billion compared to the consensus of $58.6 billion.

Lilly anticipates revenue growth contributions in 2025 from new Lilly medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh and Kisunla; approvals of new indications for existing Lilly medicines; launches of Mounjaro in additional worldwide markets, as well as potential launches of new medicines such as imlunestrant for metastatic breast cancer. Incretin market and channel dynamics have been factored into the 2025 revenue guidance range.

Price Action: LLY stock is down 8.03% at $775.10 at the last check on Tuesday.

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