Gary Black Questions Elon Musk's Take On EV Credit Removal After Tesla Sales Drop In Europe: 'Not Sure How The Math Works'

Tesla Inc. TSLA faces potential headwinds in the U.S. market as data from Europe shows significant sales declines following electric vehicle subsidy removals, raising concerns about the impact of President Donald Trump‘s planned elimination of the $7,500 EV tax credit.

What Happened: Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund LLC, highlighted on Monday that Tesla’s sales dropped 34% year-over-year in France and 41% in Germany after those countries eliminated EV incentives. The data, sourced from Tesla researcher Troy Teslike, suggests similar challenges could emerge in the U.S. market.

“Not sure how the math works for elimination of the EV credit to be bullish,” Black wrote on X.

Tesla’s European performance in 2024 showed mixed results across different markets, with total sales declining 10.7% to 326,084 units from 365,171 in 2023. While some markets like the Netherlands saw growth of 54.8%, major markets including France and Germany experienced substantial decreases.

The timing of Trump’s tax credit policy changes could significantly impact Tesla’s 2025 deliveries. Teslike suggests that maintaining current eligibility criteria while announcing a six-month phase-out would be optimal for Tesla’s sales performance, allowing customers time to utilize the credit before its elimination.

Why It Matters: Tesla CEO Elon Musk has previously supported ending EV subsidies, stating during the company’s second-quarter earnings call that while the impact would be “slight” for Tesla, it could be “devastating” for competitors.

However, Teslike argues that without the tax credit, Tesla vehicles would effectively cost $7,500 more compared to luxury gas-powered competitors from BMW, Mercedes, and other manufacturers.

The debate comes as Tesla reported global deliveries of 1.79 million vehicles in 2024, slightly down from 1.81 million in 2023, highlighting the importance of policy decisions in key markets for the company’s growth trajectory.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.