Gary Black Says Tesla's Autonomous Network Won't Make Uber Irrelevant, Cites Amazon As An Example Of Why Ride Hailing Middlemen Will Survive

The Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black questioned the claims that Tesla Inc.‘s TSLA autonomous driving network could disrupt Uber Technologies Inc. UBER, pointing to the ride-hailing giant’s massive user base as a key competitive advantage.

What Happened: In a post on X on Thursday, Black argued that Uber’s 170 million monthly active users would make it difficult for Tesla to build a sufficiently robust competing network.

He likened the situation to Amazon.com Inc.‘s AMZN dominance in e-commerce, where the platform’s scale of 310 million monthly active users makes it nearly impossible for individual merchants to compete effectively.

“Cheaper autonomous rides will be one option on the Uber app. If TSLA forbids its owners to join the UBER platform, other manufacturers will gladly fill the void,” wrote Black, who disclosed long positions in both Tesla and Uber.

There is a misplaced perception among some $TSLA bulls that the advent of unsupervised autonomy will somehow make $UBER obsolete and irrelevant when EV manufacturers can offer their own autonomous driving networks directly to consumers. Using this logic, one could argue $AMZN is… pic.twitter.com/j3CpKVN5nd
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) February 6, 2025

Why It Matters: The comments come as Tesla aims to launch its robotaxi service in 2025, starting in Texas and California, pending regulatory approval. During Tesla’s recent fourth-quarter earnings call, CEO Elon Musk expressed confidence about operating driverless paid rides, though the initial rollout may require safety drivers in some jurisdictions.

Meanwhile, Uber has pivoted its autonomous vehicle strategy, partnering with Alphabet Inc.‘s GOOGL GOOG Waymo to offer driverless rides through its platform in 2025. Under this model, Uber will handle fleet maintenance while taking a percentage of driverless taxi bookings.

Bank of America analyst John Murphy estimates Tesla’s robotaxi segment could represent 50% of the company’s valuation, potentially worth $420 billion in the U.S. and over $800 billion globally. However, the company faces significant regulatory hurdles and technological challenges in achieving fully autonomous driving capabilities.

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