Intel Outperforms Nvidia By 24%, AI Frenzy In China, Aggressive Buying On Tariffs And Retail Sales

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Reciprocal Tariffs

Please click here for an enlarged chart comparing Intel Corp (INTC) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA).

Note the following:

• At the beginning of the year, INTC stock was left for dead.  No one wanted it. In contrast, everyone loved Nvidia and wanted to buy NVDA stock.
• The chart shows that so far in 2025 INTC stock has outperformed NVDA stock by 24.29%.
• The chart illustrates the power of diversification by strategies.  The Arora Report uses over 50 different strategies.
• President Trump had previously announced that he would impose reciprocal tariffs yesterday.  Instead of announcing reciprocal tariffs, Trump announced that the U.S. will study reciprocal tariffs. Trump gave April as the timetable to impose reciprocal tariffs.  Investors liked the shift in the timeline and aggressively bought stocks on the news.
• Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.  Retail sales came lower than expected.  Here is the latest retail sales data.
  • Headline retail sales came at -0.9% vs. 0.0% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at -0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.
• Weaker retail sales caused yields to fall and started a bond rally.
• Falling yields brought in more buying into the stock market.
• Buying in the stock market is being offset as some investors take profits on the market reaching the top band of the resistance zone.
• Remember today is a Friday, and short squeezes tend to take place on Fridays.  If a short squeeze starts, it can take the stock market to a new high.
• The latest earnings are mixed.  DraftKings Inc (DKNG) and Airbnb Inc (ABNB) reported earnings better than whisper numbers.  Applied Materials Inc (AMAT), Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW), Coinbase Global Inc (COIN), and Moderna Inc (MRNA) reported earnings less than whisper numbers.  This again highlights the need for proper diversification.

China

Chinese AI stocks are reaching a three year high on continuing AI frenzy.  Of interest are KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ), and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd – ADR (BABA). The trigger for the latest rally was Apple Inc (AAPL) entering a partnership with BABA to provide AI for iPhones in China.  As full disclosure, The Arora Report gave a signal on BABA in The Arora Report’s ZYX Buy on the Apple news.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla Inc (TSLA) and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Alphabet Inc Class C ( GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), and AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is range bound.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.