Intel's Panther Lake Yield Under 30%, Says Top Analyst. Mass Production In Second Half Of 2025 'Challenging' - Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM)

Ming-Chi Kuo, a renowned industry analyst, recently shared his insights on Intel’s Panther Lake production yield, suggesting room for improvement.

What Happened: On Tuesday, Kuo posted on X about the first batch of Panther Lake engineering samples, produced using Intel Corp. INTC and IFS’ 18A advanced process node. These samples are currently being tested by major PC ODM/EMS manufacturers.

Kuo’s industry research indicates that the production yield of Panther Lake is less than 20-30% in early 2025, making it challenging to achieve mass production in the second half of the year. He also pointed out the challenges IFS faces in obtaining orders from external customers, such as organization/supply chain management and culture. In comparison, the analyst highlights Taiwan Semiconductor TSM as a strong example.

The first Panther Lake engineering samples, made with Intel/IFS's 18A, are currently being tested by major PC ODM/EMS makers. My early 2025 industry survey showed 18A yields below 20-30%, so there's still a lot of room to step up—which doesn't bode well for Intel's goal of…
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) February 24, 2025

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Why It Matters: Intel has been banking on its advanced 18A process node to return to profitability by 2026. The 18A node, featured in upcoming launches like Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest, is Intel's most cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing technology. However, Wall Street has eyes on the implementation of this project. However, with Kuo’s finding the success of this advanced process node remains questionable.

Another big project that Intel is pinning its hope on is its Nova Lake due for release in 2026. Though the exact specifications are unclear, Nova Lake is said to resolve the memory latency issue that is severely impacting Arrow Lake.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has denied receiving any application from TSMC regarding its acquisition of a stake in Intel. Taiwan’s economy minister, Kuo Jyh Huei, stated on Tuesday that the ministry had not received any information regarding an overseas investment application from a Taiwanese chipmaker, as reported by Reuters.

Intel stock dropped more than 5% in Tuesday’s trading session. The recent market uncertainties, including potential chip export restrictions to China and the CHIPS Act, have added pressure on the semiconductor giant.