Retail Slowdown, Tariffs Jolt Leisure Stocks: Analyst Revises Estimates For Topgolf, Harley-Davidson And More

Keybanc analyst Noah Zatzkin analyzed the Leisure & Performance Brands ahead of the first-quarter earnings.

The analyst remains cautious ahead of the first-quarter FY25 earnings, citing continued weakness in consumer demand across retail and leisure markets.

Recent channel checks from February and March revealed sluggish conditions, prompting widespread estimate and price target reductions across the leisure sector.

Also Read: Retail Giant Costco Raises Dividend By 12%

Concerns have intensified due to recent tariff policy uncertainty, which is expected to further dampen demand, especially for big-ticket discretionary items, said the analyst.

To account for this shifting landscape, the analyst reassessed risk related to tariffs, liquidity, leverage, and covenant exposure across the sector.

While the situation remains fluid, current policies are expected to directly affect earnings and dampen overall demand.

Most companies issued cautious and conservative first-quarter guidance, anticipating a slow start to the year.

Expecting many firms to revise or withdraw forward guidance due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff concerns, Zatzkin adds.

Estimates for the following stocks were revised downward: Brunswick Corp BC, Acushnet Holdings Corp GOLF, Garmin Ltd GRMN, Harley-Davidson Inc HOG, Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp MODG, OneWater Marine Inc ONEW, and Polaris Inc PII.

Price forecasts were also trimmed for names like Camping World Holdings Inc CWH, GOLF, Patrick Industries Inc PATK, Thor Industries Inc THO, and Winnebago Industries Inc WGO.

Meanwhile, Yeti Holdings Inc YETI received an upgrade from Underweight to Sector Weight despite tariff risks, as lowered estimates are now better aligned with current market conditions.

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