Tractor Supply Earnings Outlook Brightens With 2025 Profit Growth Potential, Says Analyst

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares of Tractor Supply Co TSCO with a price forecast of $67.

The company is scheduled to report its first-quarter FY25 earnings on April 24.

Tractor Supply’s sales are projected to grow 4.8% to $3.6 billion in the upcoming quarter, with comparable sales rising 1.3%, slightly ahead of the 1.0% FactSet consensus, said the analyst.

The optimistic outlook is driven by improved weather conditions and the company's continued market share gains.

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Despite a flat retail landscape and easing COVID-19 pandemic-era comparisons, weaker inflation may impact average transaction size, reflecting broader economic uncertainty, the analyst wrote.

Gross margin is expected to rise by 98 basis points to 36.3%, driven by better supply chain performance and a shift toward higher-margin private label and media segments.

But, ongoing strategic investments like adding a new distribution center are projected to increase SG&A costs by roughly 250 basis points to 28.7%, leading to an anticipated 60 basis point decline in operating margin to 7.6%, said the analyst.

Analysts reaffirm a 2025 EPS estimate of $2.20 for Tractor Supply, above the FactSet consensus of $2.16 and within company guidance.

The outlook sees potential gains in the second half of the year as market conditions stabilize. The long-term thesis remains bullish, backed by the retailer’s “Life Out Here 2030” strategy.

TSCO Price Action: Tractor Supply Co. shares closed Thursday up 1.58% at $50.14.

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