Goldman Sachs Sticks To Neutral On Old Dominion, Eyes April Revenue, Tonnage Trends, Q2 Margin Improvement

Goldman Sachs analyst Jordan Alliger reiterated a Neutral Rating on Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (NASDAQ: ODFL) with a price forecast of $192 following first quarter FY25 results.

The company reported a revenue decline of 5.8% year-over-year (Y/Y) to $1.375 billion, slightly beating the consensus of $1.37 billion and EPS of $1.19, beat the consensus of $1.14.

Old Dominion CEO Marty Freeman said the company's financial results for the first quarter reflect "ongoing softness in the domestic economy."

The analyst writes that during the conference call, he anticipates management to offer updates on April revenue trends.

Goldman Sachs and consensus estimates for second-quarter revenue per day showed a Y/Y decline of 1% and 2%, respectively, adds the analyst.

Alliger says tonnage growth is expected to be down 4% and 5%, respectively, and revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel, is projected to grow by approximately 4%-5% Y/Y. He also expects insights into the sequential margin performance.

Historically, Old Dominion Freight Line management commentary suggests an average operating ratio improvement of around 350-400 basis points from the first to the second quarter, with analyst’s pre-COVID calculation yielding an average of roughly 400-450 basis points.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via First Trust S&P 500 Diversified Dividend Aristocrats ETF IYT and ProShares Trust ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF SUPL.

Price Action: ODFL shares are up 1.74% at $154.71 at the last check Wednesday.

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