Comcast Faces Analyst Concerns Over Broadband Losses Despite Revenue And Peacock Gains

Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett had a Neutral rating on Comcast Corp CMCSA on Thursday.

Comcast shares were pressured Thursday by a first-quarter 2025 earnings report that featured a slightly higher broadband subscriber loss than anticipated and some upside in total revenues and EBITDA.

Crockett noted that part of the negative reaction is the tone and detail around broadband.

Also Read: Comcast Hit Hard By Subscriber Exodus, Nearly 630,000 Customers Gone In Q1

As competitive intensity stepped up, so did macro impacts on subscriber trends, and a strategic transition is underway for bundled and fixed pricing that is expected to stall EBITDA growth.

Otherwise, the ad market was flat (ex-political and sports skews), not “yet” showing impacts from macro pressures. Orlando was a highlight with stable trends and high interest in the upcoming Epic Universe opening on May 22.

Revenue of $29.9 billion dipped 0.6% Y/Y but was ~ $100 million above consensus. Adjusted EBITDA of $9.5 billion rose 1.9% Y/Y, about $400 million above estimates. Adjusted EPS of $1.09 rose 4.8% Y/Y and topped estimates by a dime.

Broadband subscribers dipped 199K Q/Q to 31.643 million, versus consensus closer to -146K and 139K loss in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Comcast announced a new 5-year fixed-cost pricing plan in mid-April, starting at $55/month.

The plan includes unlimited data, Wi-Fi, and a free mobile service line for a year. The impacts of this will phase in over time in the P&L.

Comcast still sees “healthy” ARPU growth, including charging for mobile once the free offer ends. However, according to C&P’s new COO, Dave Watson, this will “require some investment, which in turn will impact its ability to grow EBITDA. “

Wireless net adds of 323K to exit with 8.15 million were 27K above estimates. The video subscriber decline of 427 thousand to 12.1 million was 11 thousand more than the consensus. Peacock added 5 million subscribers to 41 million, versus expectations for flat, mainly attributed to the new bundling deal with Charter.

Unit revenues dipped 5% year over year, consistent with estimates, while EBITDA of $429 million, down 32% year over year, was slightly better than estimates.

Epic Universe’s pre-opening costs of $100 million were as guided.

Comcast cited “strong demand since launching Epic ticket sales” in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The building is afoot. A new Universal Horror is planned for Las Vegas this August; a Universal Kids Resort is slotted for Frisco, Texas, in 2026.

Plans were announced for a new Universal Theme Park and Resort in Bedford, England, near London, opening in 2031 and with construction starting in 2026. Universal Hollywood was said to have “softness” because of its proximity to LA wildfires, with a “gradual” recovery seen.

Crockett’s understanding is that Disneyland, further away, does not see these fire impacts.

Price Action: Comcast stock closed higher by 2.14% at $33.90 on Friday.

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