Rivian Stock Faces 'Murky Macro Backdrop,' Tariff Concerns: Analysts Cautious Ahead Of R2 Launch

Rivian Automotive RIVN analysts break down first-quarter financial results and examine how the company’s revised vehicle delivery guidance could impact the stock.

The Rivian Analysts: Bank of America analyst John Murphy reiterated an Underperform rating on Rivian with a $10 price target.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives maintained an Outperform rating and lowered the price target from $20 to $18.

Needham analyst Chris Pierce reiterated a Buy rating and lowered the price target from $17 to $16.

Bank of America on RIVN: Rivian's first quarter was "good," but risks remain ahead of the R2 launch, Murphy said in a new investor note.

The analyst said the first quarter double beat was driven mainly by stronger gross margins and help from the Volkswagen joint venture with payments recognized in the quarter.

"The company is making progress towards achieving a sustainably positive gross margin and remains one of the most viable among the startup EV OEMs with solid tech/product and intangible value in the Rivian brand," Murphy said.

He said management commentary showed that tariffs could lead to higher capex in 2025 and impact EBITDA.

"There are risks to its outlook due to tariffs, the VW partnership complicates earnings forecasts, competition for electric SUV/CUVs is increasing, EV demand is tepid, policy/regulatory changes also remain a sizable risk, and it is a long way to the next product launch (R2)."

Wedbush on RIVN: Rivian is on the path to "profitable growth," but tariffs bring a new challenge, Ives said in a new investor note.

Ives said Rivian faces a "murky macro backdrop" as it works towards profitability.

"Rivian hit a key milestone in the quarter after reaching its second quarter of gross profit positive unlocking an expected $1 billion investment from Volkswagen Group," Ives said.

The analyst noted that Rivian lowered its delivery guidance due to macro headwinds, policies, tariffs, and consumer demand.

"We continue to remain confident in the long-term RIVN vision that is in the midst of a massive transformation while looking to optimize its R1 production while preparing to ramp its R2 and midsize platform supply chains."

Needham on RIVN: Rivian's first quarter saw good and bad with margin upside but lower delivery guidance and macro concerns, Pierce said in a new investor note.

"RIVN delivered a strong quarter with positive cash gross margins, marking its second consecutive profitable period and signaling operational progress ahead of the R2 launch," Pierce said, adding that Rivian faces near-term headwinds ahead of the R2 launch.

"RIVN lowered its full-year unit delivery guidance, reflecting weaker-than-expected near-term demand."

Pierce said Rivian's previous guidance already showed a "cautious demand outlook," which makes the new reduction important as it highlights the company’s other challenges.

The analyst said it’s "hard to point to imminent upside in RIVN shares."

Pierce remains bullish on the long-term outlook for Rivian with the R2 coming in 2026.

"We see RIVN as a long-term winner in the ICE to EV transition."

RIVN Price Action: Rivian stock is down 5.9% to $12.71 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $9.25 to $18.86. Rivian stock is down 4.0% year-to-date in 2025 with shares up 24% over the last year.

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