Walmart Q1 Earnings Preview: Why Retailer Will Have 'One Of The Most Telling' Reports On Tariff Impact

Retailer Walmart Inc WMT may provide a better picture of the impact of tariffs on consumers when the company reports first-quarter financial results before market open Thursday.

Here are the analyst estimates, a look at what experts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Walmart to report first-quarter revenue of $165.88 billion. That’s up from $161.51 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in more than 10 straight quarters.

Analysts expect Walmart to report earnings per share of 58 cents, down from 60 cents per share in Q1 2024.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in five straight quarters and nine of the last ten quarters overall. The lone non-beat was earnings in line with estimates.

The company’s guidance calls for first-quarter sales to be up 3% to 4% year over year. Earnings per share range between 57 cents and 58 cents.

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What Experts Are Saying: In a recent note, Telsey Advisory analyst Joseph Feldman said Walmart could benefit from grocery market share gains and improving e-commerce progress in the first quarter.

The analyst maintained an Outperform rating and price target for $115.

Feldman said Walmart could gain wallet share from several groups, including higher-income consumers. The analyst said Amazon and Costco showed trends of first-quarter sales being stronger for categories like electronics.

Feldman said Walmart should navigate the uncertain macroeconomic environment effectively.

Bank of America analyst Robert Ohmes said Walmart is well-equipped to handle tariffs with its pricing and automation strategies, inventory management and strong supplier relationships.

The analyst maintained a Buy rating with a $120 price target ahead of the quarterly earnings.

Ohmes said Walmart's groceries are less likely to be impacted by tariffs.

Freedom Capital Markets Chief Global Strategist Jay Woods highlighted the importance of Walmart's financial results for the market in his weekly newsletter.

"Walmart could be one of the most telling stocks when it comes to tariff impacts when they report on Thursday," Woods said.

Woods said Walmart was cautious with guidance after the last quarter.

"Investors will be closely watching this report for strategies on managing tariff-related challenges, maintaining competitive pricing, and supply chain issues that may make stocking shelves more of a challenge."

Key Items to Watch: Tariffs commentary will undoubtedly be the biggest item in Walmart's earnings and conference call.

Outside of tariffs, investors and analysts could also look at commentary on the company's Walmart+ membership program. The subscription-based service was responsible for around 50% of online spending in the U.S. last fiscal year. This could make it a strong source of ecommerce and recurring revenue.

A report said the program is seeing increased spending per subscriber and also higher shopping frequency rates from subscribers.

Walmart+ has also helped the retailer post 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit online sales growth in the United States.

Global e-commerce sales were up 16% year-over-year in Q4; this will be a key area to watch in Q1.

WMT Price Action: Walmart stock was up 1.3% to $97.11 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $59.47 to $105.30. Walmart stock is up 7.9% year-to-date in 2025 and up over 60% in the last year.

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