Speculators are rushing to prediction markets as a high-stake and brutal feud between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk triggers a wave of wagers on electric vehicle subsidies, Musk's government ties and shifting political alliances.

Tesla Inc. TSLA plummeted 14.26% on Thursday, erasing $152 billion in value — the electric vehicle maker’s worst single-day loss in over two years.

Trump's Tax Bill And Musk's Political Pivot

The feud broke out after Trump unveiled a sweeping tax proposal that includes eliminating federal electric vehicle subsidies — in what he dubbed "One Big Beautiful Bill."

Musk fired back on X, saying he had nothing to do with Trump's tax bill and blasting both the process and the content of the legislation, that he dubbed “Big Ugly Bill.”

"His bill was never shown to me even once and was passed in the dead of night so fast that almost no one in Congress could even read it!" Musk wrote.

He mocked Trump's branding of the bill, saying, "In the entire history of civilization, there has never been legislation that both big and beautiful. Everyone knows this!"

Musk added that the real path forward is "slim and beautiful," not bloated government spending. He argued that cutting EV and solar incentives made sense — but only if Congress also rolled back what he called "crazy spending increases in the Big Ugly Bill."

"Congress is spending America into bankruptcy," he warned.

According to the latest Congressional Budget Office estimates, the tax bill is slated to increase the U.S. government deficit by $2.4 trillion by 2034.

Trump responded moments later, saying Musk had "gone CRAZY" after losing access to government EV mandates. "I asked him to leave," Trump posted, "and I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!)."

Trump defended the bill as one of the "greatest" ever introduced to Congress, claiming it includes a record $1.6 trillion in spending cuts and the biggest tax cut in U.S. history. He warned that failure to pass it would trigger a 68% tax increase and "things far worse than that."

Then came the real bombshell: in a separate post, Musk wrote, "Time to drop the really big bomb. Trump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.!" He offered no evidence to support the explosive claim.

Trump countered by threatening to review all federal contracts with Musk's businesses, including SpaceX and satellite internet provider Starlink.

Musk’s push for a new political movement also caught fire. In a viral X poll, he asked users whether it was time to form a new party to represent the "80% in the middle." Out of nearly 5 million responses, 80% said yes.

What Do Betting Odds Reveal About What Comes Next?

According to Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, traders are now speculating on several key outcomes. (These text figures are from 11 a.m. ET on June 6. Note that these graphs reflect real-time wagers.)

• 76% chance Trump ends the electric vehicle tax credit this year

• 40% probability Trump releases Epstein-related files

• 35% chance Musk unfollows Trump on X by year's end

• 8% chance Musk rejoins Trump's administration this year: If the event resolves as ‘Yes’, a $100 wager would pay out $612.

• 14% chance Musk supports Democrats in 2028

• Only a 7% probability that the U.S. administration announces an outright ban on social media X: A $100 bet would return $1,270 if the ban occurs.

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