Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) is on fire – up a staggering 497% over the past year and up 85% so far in 2025. From vaulting past the $100 mark in early 2025 to smashing a fresh all-time high above $137 in June, PLTR is more than a high-beta AI stock – it’s a geopolitical play wrapped in data analytics.
Geopolitical Sparks Fuel The Rally
The current Israel–Iran tension is actually benefitting investors in Palantir stock. Having formed a strategic partnership with Israel's Ministry of Defense, Palantir has been selling battlefield-grade AI tools since October.
Reddit buzz sums it up:
"Palantir is heavily used by Israel… the use case for AI in warfare… is astounding," says a Redditor.
Palantir's strategic role as a geopolitical hedge has only strengthened amid Middle East volatility—no surprise it's the S&P 500's top performer this past quarter.
Defense Spending Winds At PLTR's Back
Back on home turf, Palantir just scored a massive win: the Department of Defense boosted its contract ceiling for the Maven Smart System from $480 million to a whopping $1.275 billion – a potential $272 million in annual revenue. NATO's adoption of Maven added another ~5.6% boost to the stock on that news.
These wins suggest DOD and NATO see PLTR as mission-critical in AI-fueled defense modernization.
Momentum Meets Skepticism
Retail investors have piled in, helping propel PLTR to a breakout year in 2025.
Chart created using Benzinga Pro
Technicals confirm momentum: Trading above all simple moving average, PLTR stock sports an MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) indicator of 5.52 and an RSI (relative strength index) of 64.63 and rising, backed by solid institutional buying.
But critics raise a caution flag. The valuation is eye-watering – with PLTR stock trading at 587.78x earnings. Even consensus analyst targets suggest a 7.38% downside. Indeed, volatility remains high – Palantir's fortunes swing with geopolitical tremors and macro shocks.
The Big Question: Sustainability
Palantir stock’s 498% rally over the past year isn’t just a runway – it's a rocket fueled by government contracts, AI momentum, and geopolitical leverage. But sustaining this trajectory hinges on continued defense spending, deeper AI integration, and navigating valuation concerns.
For traders: This is high-beta territory. A strong catalyst – like another NATO contract – could send PLTR further skyrocketing. But a lull in global tension or profit-taking on valuation worries could bring sudden reversals.
For investors: The long-term story is compelling – AI, defense, and geopolitical resilience. But at these multiples, it's risk peppered with reward.
Palantir's on top now. With defense wins and Israel tie‑ins lighting the fuse, it's a vivid rally – but not without fireworks and volatility.
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