Joey Chestnut: The GOAT Returns After 16 Hot Dog Titles — Can Anyone Stop Him? - Nathan's Famous (NASDAQ:NATH), Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS)

When people name their GOATs, or Greatest of All Time athletes, across various sports there's a good chance that Joey Chestnut's name comes up. After a controversial ban from the 2024 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest, the king is returning next month.

What Happened: Whether Chestnut is a GOAT or sports king likely depends on your definition of competitive eating as a sport. One thing is for sure: Since 2007, there haven't been many sure things, like betting on Chestnut to win the annual Fourth of July hot dog eating contest.

"I'm thrilled to be returning to the Nathan's Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest. This event means the world to me. It's a cherished tradition, a celebration of American culture, and a huge part of my life," Chestnut tweeted.

Chestnut was banned from the competition last year due to its sponsorship of the plant-based food company Impossible Foods, which was viewed as a rival of Nathan's Famous Inc. NATH, the annual competition’s sponsor.

"While I have and continue to partner with a variety of companies, including some in the plant-based space, those relationships were never a conflict with my love for hot dogs. To be clear: Nathan's is the only hot dog company I've ever worked with," Chestnut added.

Chestnut has won the event 16 times including 16 of the 17 competitions from 2007 to 2023.

Last year's competition, without Chestnut, was won by Patrick Bertoletti who ate 58 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. While the figure was enough to beat the live competition, Bertoletti's total was small in comparison to past years featuring Chestnut.

Chestnut ate 62 hot dogs and buns in 2023 and in 2021 ate a record 76 hot dogs and buns. Chestnut ate 70 or more hot dogs and buns in the years 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021.

While he wasn't present at the New York event last year, a YouTube stream of Chestnut taking on four U.S. Army soldiers saw the competitive eater down 57 hot dogs and buns in five minutes on the Fourth of July, beating the combined total of 49 from the four competitors. This was only one shy of Bertoletti's championship total but came in five fewer minutes.

Netflix Inc NFLX also aired a live eating competition of Chestnut versus former champion Takeru Kobayashi in September. Chestnut won that competition with a total of 83 versus 62 from Kobayashi.

Without Chestnut competing in last year's competition, fewer viewers tuned in. ESPN, a unit of The Walt Disney Company DIS, had around 831,000 viewers for the 2024 event, compared to totals of over one million in past years. This marked the lowest viewership for the event since 2013.

Betting Odds: Legal sportsbooks have not released betting odds for the Fourth of July hot dog eating contest, but Chestnut is sure to be a heavy betting favorite.

In 2023, Chestnut had odds of -5000, meaning a bettor had to wager $5,000 to win $100. Without Chestnut last year, the odds saw competitor eaters listed with odds of +100 or higher.

Betting odds from Bovada currently list Chestnut as a -2500 betting favorite, followed by Bertoletti at +950, Geoff Esper at +1,200, Nick Wehry at +2,000 and James Webb at +2,500. Esper was the runner-up last year with 53, followed by Webb in third at 52 and Wehry at fourth with 46.75.

With Chestnut being a huge favorite, bettors may turn to the over/under on how many hot dogs the champ will eat or bet on who will finish in second place.

The rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket could see more betting options for people as well.

There is also betting on the women's competition, which will likely see Miki Sudo as the heavy favorite. Sudo had won 10 of the last 11 competitions, with the lone non-win coming when she sat out the competition while pregnant. Sudo broke the women's record last year with 51 hot dogs and buns.

After being banned for a year, there's a good chance Chestnut will return ready to defend his past titles and likely see a large portion of betting volume.

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