Gold Rarely Beats Bitcoin, But 2025 Could Be Another Blowout Year

Gold has quietly pulled off a rare feat in 2025, beating Bitcoin‘s BTC/USD returns in the first half of the year by a double-digit margin.

As of July 1, gold is up 26% year-to-date, marking its best half-year performance since 2007. Bitcoin has gained 13% over the same period.

Since Bitcoin's inception in 2009, gold has only outperformed it in three calendar years: 2014, 2018 and 2022.

While each of those years saw triple-digit relative outperformance—125%, 285% and 178%—those gains came from steep Bitcoin selloffs, not explosive gold rallies.

With a 13% edge halfway through the year, could 2025 become the fourth year where gold decisively beats the world's top digital asset?

Bitcoin Matures Amid Slower ETF Inflows

Bitcoin is emerging from a highly volatile and high-risk asset and showing signs of maturity in 2025.

During the tariff-driven selloff in early April, Bitcoin dropped by just 10%, holding up better than major equity benchmarks, such as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.

"Bitcoin is shedding its punk status and moving into the mainstream," said Sumit Roy, senior analyst at ETF.com, in a recent note. He attributes this shift to declining price volatility and institutional adoption, especially through spot exchange-traded funds.

But with reduced volatility comes fewer explosive rallies.

Total inflows into iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT – the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF in the first half of 2025 – were $15 billion.

That's strong, but down from the $17.7 billion recorded in the same period last year.

The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund FBTC – the second biggest Bitcoin ETF – drew just $285 million in new money versus $9.2 billion in the first half of 2024.

This is notable because recent political and regulatory developments have been overwhelmingly crypto-friendly.

Gold Takes The Lead As Dollar Crumbles

Investors appear to be taking a broader view, positioning gold as the clear winner in a weakening dollar environment.

The U.S. dollar just logged its worst half-year performance since 1991, with its trade-weighted value dropping more than 10% year to date.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said President Donald Trump's ongoing attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are rattling currency markets and accelerating the dollar's decline.

"There is method to President Donald Trump's madness regarding Powell," Yardeni said. "He's found a way to effectively hammer the foreign-exchange value of the dollar—by hammering Powell."

Trump, who has long favored a weaker dollar to boost exports, is reportedly pressuring Powell to resign so he can install a more dovish successor.

Potential replacements include Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, both known for advocating quicker rate cuts.

As real yields fall and the dollar erodes, gold has now soared to $3,360 per ounce. Yardeni sees more upside ahead, targeting $4,000 by year-end—a gain of nearly 20% from current levels.

Wall Street, take notice: the original store of value is back in the spotlight.

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