Why Centene's 40% Drop Doesn't Necessarily Signal A Buy

Centene Corp. CNC has dropped over 40% in recent sessions, and the decline may be more than just a market reaction. A closer look through the lens of the Adhishthana Principles reveals structural issues that could lead to prolonged underperformance.

Monthly Chart: A Breakdown That Changed Everything

Under the Adhishthana framework, stocks typically build a formation called the Adhishthana Cakra between Phases 4 and 8, a structure resembling a channel with an arc. Ideally, the stock breaks out of this channel in Phase 9, initiating a strong rally.

However, Centene broke the Cakra on the flip side, a bearish development that triggers what’s called the Move of Pralayā in Adhishthana terminology.

“When the underlying breaks the Cākra on the flip side, it typically draws consolidation up to the Guna triads. The movement after the break is typically highly significant, and the selling momentum is extremely strong. Such a move shall be called the Move of Pralayā.” — Adhishthana: The Principles That Govern Wealth, Time & Tragedy

Centene is now in Phase 7 on the monthly chart, and based on the cycle, it won't complete Phase 13 (the pre-Guna triad phase) until November 30, 2032. That's a long runway of potential weakness, with little structural support to turn the trend around.

Weekly Chart: Echoes The Same Story

The weekly structure echoes the same concerns. Centene is currently in Phase 14, the beginning of the critical Guna Triads (Phases 14–16). These phases collectively determine whether the stock reaches Nirvana (its cycle's peak) in Phase 18.

Unfortunately, this recent decline reflects the energy of Tamoguna, the most bearish of the three energies defined in the Adhishthana Principles.

“If the Gūna Triads start from a very strong Tamoguna, there will be no Nirvana in Phase 18.”
— Adhishthana: The Principles That Govern Wealth, Time & Tragedy

This means Cenetene is unlikely to make any meaningful highs until after October 2028, when the current weekly cycle concludes.

Investor Outlook: Not a Normal Correction

While some might see this as a routine correction, the Move of Pralayā signals something far more serious. This pattern is typically triggered only when there's a fundamental issue with the underlying stock, and in Centene's case, that concern appears justified.

The company is currently facing allegations of violating federal securities laws, with the investigation covering the period from December 12, 2024, to June 30, 2025. Notably, this timeframe aligns with when Centene began breaking below its Cakra structure, adding weight to the Adhishthana interpretation and reinforcing the principles.

Even minor rallies in this environment are unlikely to be sustainable. And with the monthly chart also in Phase 7, which typically brings a two-fold bearish sequence (known as the Fall of Arthah and Arthārthi), the downside pressure may persist.

What to do now:

• If you’re already holding CNC, consider your risk exposure carefully.
  
• New investors should avoid chasing dips, as any upside could be short-lived.
  
• Given the long horizon before potential recovery, CNC may not be a stock worth sticking with right now.
  

Also Read:

MongoDB Stock Weak Structure Suggests Prolonged Slump
Recently, MongoDB also broke its Cakra and triggered a Move of Pralayā. Here’s what that means for long-term investors.