Trump's Pick For Fed Chair: Christopher Waller Emerges As Frontrunner

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is now seen as the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair, according to sources close to the Trump team.

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The pick reflects a growing divide inside the Federal Reserve and Trump's clear preference for a more aggressive rate-cut stance.

Notably, Waller dissented at the July FOMC meeting, advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point rate cut, directly opposing Powell and the majority, who voted to hold.

Waller Gains Momentum With Trump Team

Advisers close to Trump say they were impressed not only by Waller's call to cut rates in July, but also by his broader economic philosophy: making policy decisions based on forecasts, rather than lagging data.

His extensive experience within the Federal Reserve System, including roles at the St. Louis Fed and academic institutions, only strengthens his standing.

Waller has reportedly held conversations with Trump's team about the role but has not yet met with the former president directly. Still, the shift in focus is visible in prediction markets.

On the Kalshi betting platform, Waller's odds of becoming the next Fed Chair spiked by over 30 percentage points, hitting 51%, while other contenders like Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh trail at 30% and 24%, respectively.

Why Waller Dissented—And What That Means

In a detailed statement issued after the July meeting, Waller laid out his reasoning for wanting to cut rates now—not later.

He indicated that tariffs are causing only temporary price hikes, not sustained inflation, and that the Fed should "look through" these short-term effects.

"The labor market looks fine on the surface," Waller said, "but private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed."

Waller pointed to GDP growth of just 1.2% in the first half of 2025, soft consumer spending, and underlying inflation that was hovering near the target when adjusted for tariffs. He warned that the Fed's current stance is still well above neutral, placing the policy rate 125 to 150 basis points above the long-run rate estimate of 3%.

"When labor markets turn, they often turn fast," he said. "Waiting may unduly delay moving toward appropriate policy."

He added that the Fed should avoid falling behind the curve, especially when it has the option to cut now and reassess later.

What Trump Wants From The Fed

Waller's proactive stance on rates aligns with Trump's broader economic message heading into 2026: keep inflation in check without choking off growth.

As tariffs continue to weigh on prices, Trump's team appears focused on finding a Fed Chair who is less reactionary and more forward-looking.

That puts Waller in the ideal position—an insider who isn't afraid to dissent, and someone who believes the Fed should act before the economy shows deeper cracks.

While no decision is final, and Waller hasn't been formally nominated, momentum is clearly shifting in favor of him.

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